Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's August 25 minimum temperature will likely fall near the 24–26°C range amid the southwest monsoon, with widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and moderate southwest winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity near 85–90% and frequent precipitation further suppress temperature drops by reducing outgoing longwave radiation. The near-even market split between 31°C-or-higher and 21°C-or-below outcomes reflects model divergence on exact cloud persistence and rainfall timing, which can shift the overnight low by 2–4°C. Historical August minima average 25°C, providing a baseline traders weigh against short-term forecast updates expected in the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 25?
31°C or higher 93%
21°C or below 92%
22°C 51%
28°C 51%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
92%
22°C
51%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
27%
26°C
27%
27°C
27%
28°C
51%
29°C
51%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
93%
31°C or higher 93%
21°C or below 92%
22°C 51%
28°C 51%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$5 Vol.
92%
22°C
$5 Vol.
51%
23°C
$0 Vol.
26%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$5 Vol.
51%
29°C
$5 Vol.
51%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's August 25 minimum temperature will likely fall near the 24–26°C range amid the southwest monsoon, with widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and moderate southwest winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity near 85–90% and frequent precipitation further suppress temperature drops by reducing outgoing longwave radiation. The near-even market split between 31°C-or-higher and 21°C-or-below outcomes reflects model divergence on exact cloud persistence and rainfall timing, which can shift the overnight low by 2–4°C. Historical August minima average 25°C, providing a baseline traders weigh against short-term forecast updates expected in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's August 25 minimum temperature will likely fall near the 24–26°C range amid the southwest monsoon, with widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and moderate southwest winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity near 85–90% and frequent precipitation further suppress temperature drops by reducing outgoing longwave radiation. The near-even market split between 31°C-or-higher and 21°C-or-below outcomes reflects model divergence on exact cloud persistence and rainfall timing, which can shift the overnight low by 2–4°C. Historical August minima average 25°C, providing a baseline traders weigh against short-term forecast updates expected in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's August 25 minimum temperature will likely fall near the 24–26°C range amid the southwest monsoon, with widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and moderate southwest winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity near 85–90% and frequent precipitation further suppress temperature drops by reducing outgoing longwave radiation. The near-even market split between 31°C-or-higher and 21°C-or-below outcomes reflects model divergence on exact cloud persistence and rainfall timing, which can shift the overnight low by 2–4°C. Historical August minima average 25°C, providing a baseline traders weigh against short-term forecast updates expected in the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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