Forecast models from NOAA and NHC indicate Miami's July 16 overnight low will likely settle near 80–81°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds, keeping radiative cooling limited in the humid subtropical air mass. Sea-breeze moderation from the warm Atlantic and Gulf Stream, combined with typical urban heat island effects, supports this range, while scattered afternoon convection may reduce clear-sky cooling overnight. Historical July minima average 78°F, but current guidance shows slight model spread on cloud thickness and wind speed that could shift the low by 2–3°F either way. Traders are pricing tight probabilities across 78–83°F bins because fresh model runs and local observations offer no decisive edge on exact minimum thresholds before the 24-hour window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on July 16?
Lowest temperature in Miami on July 16?
82-83°F 33%
80-81°F 33%
78-79°F 20%
76-77°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Jul 16, 2026
71°F or below
7%
72-73°F
15%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
17%
78-79°F
20%
80-81°F
33%
82-83°F
33%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
14%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
1%
82-83°F 33%
80-81°F 33%
78-79°F 20%
76-77°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Jul 16, 2026
71°F or below
$145 Vol.
7%
72-73°F
$15 Vol.
15%
74-75°F
$1 Vol.
14%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
17%
78-79°F
$4 Vol.
20%
80-81°F
$1 Vol.
33%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
33%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
17%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
14%
88-89°F
$76 Vol.
1%
90°F or higher
$115 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from NOAA and NHC indicate Miami's July 16 overnight low will likely settle near 80–81°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds, keeping radiative cooling limited in the humid subtropical air mass. Sea-breeze moderation from the warm Atlantic and Gulf Stream, combined with typical urban heat island effects, supports this range, while scattered afternoon convection may reduce clear-sky cooling overnight. Historical July minima average 78°F, but current guidance shows slight model spread on cloud thickness and wind speed that could shift the low by 2–3°F either way. Traders are pricing tight probabilities across 78–83°F bins because fresh model runs and local observations offer no decisive edge on exact minimum thresholds before the 24-hour window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$363End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from NOAA and NHC indicate Miami's July 16 overnight low will likely settle near 80–81°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds, keeping radiative cooling limited in the humid subtropical air mass. Sea-breeze moderation from the warm Atlantic and Gulf Stream, combined with typical urban heat island effects, supports this range, while scattered afternoon convection may reduce clear-sky cooling overnight. Historical July minima average 78°F, but current guidance shows slight model spread on cloud thickness and wind speed that could shift the low by 2–3°F either way. Traders are pricing tight probabilities across 78–83°F bins because fresh model runs and local observations offer no decisive edge on exact minimum thresholds before the 24-hour window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$363End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from NOAA and NHC indicate Miami's July 16 overnight low will likely settle near 80–81°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds, keeping radiative cooling limited in the humid subtropical air mass. Sea-breeze moderation from the warm Atlantic and Gulf Stream, combined with typical urban heat island effects, supports this range, while scattered afternoon convection may reduce clear-sky cooling overnight. Historical July minima average 78°F, but current guidance shows slight model spread on cloud thickness and wind speed that could shift the low by 2–3°F either way. Traders are pricing tight probabilities across 78–83°F bins because fresh model runs and local observations offer no decisive edge on exact minimum thresholds before the 24-hour window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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