Recent short-range forecasts from INMET and regional models indicate São Paulo will likely see a daily maximum near 25–26°C on July 16, driven by reduced cloud cover and a temporary ridge of higher pressure suppressing typical winter cooling. These conditions align with the market’s heaviest positioning on those outcomes, as traders weigh the city’s July climatological average of 21–23°C against the current model consensus favoring modest warming. Key uncertainties remain around exact boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute frontal passage that could cap readings one degree lower. Updated model runs and official station observations tomorrow morning will provide the final resolution inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 16?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 16?
25°C 44%
26°C 33%
24°C 14%
23°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jul 16, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
8%
24°C
14%
25°C
44%
26°C
33%
27°C
7%
28°C
4%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
1%
25°C 44%
26°C 33%
24°C 14%
23°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jul 16, 2026
20°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$20 Vol.
1%
22°C
$33 Vol.
1%
23°C
$31 Vol.
8%
24°C
$46 Vol.
14%
25°C
$86 Vol.
44%
26°C
$19 Vol.
33%
27°C
$5 Vol.
7%
28°C
$10 Vol.
4%
29°C
$189 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$25 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from INMET and regional models indicate São Paulo will likely see a daily maximum near 25–26°C on July 16, driven by reduced cloud cover and a temporary ridge of higher pressure suppressing typical winter cooling. These conditions align with the market’s heaviest positioning on those outcomes, as traders weigh the city’s July climatological average of 21–23°C against the current model consensus favoring modest warming. Key uncertainties remain around exact boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute frontal passage that could cap readings one degree lower. Updated model runs and official station observations tomorrow morning will provide the final resolution inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$435End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from INMET and regional models indicate São Paulo will likely see a daily maximum near 25–26°C on July 16, driven by reduced cloud cover and a temporary ridge of higher pressure suppressing typical winter cooling. These conditions align with the market’s heaviest positioning on those outcomes, as traders weigh the city’s July climatological average of 21–23°C against the current model consensus favoring modest warming. Key uncertainties remain around exact boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute frontal passage that could cap readings one degree lower. Updated model runs and official station observations tomorrow morning will provide the final resolution inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$435End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from INMET and regional models indicate São Paulo will likely see a daily maximum near 25–26°C on July 16, driven by reduced cloud cover and a temporary ridge of higher pressure suppressing typical winter cooling. These conditions align with the market’s heaviest positioning on those outcomes, as traders weigh the city’s July climatological average of 21–23°C against the current model consensus favoring modest warming. Key uncertainties remain around exact boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute frontal passage that could cap readings one degree lower. Updated model runs and official station observations tomorrow morning will provide the final resolution inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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