Recent ensemble forecasts for Qingdao on July 15 indicate modest uncertainty around peak temperatures near 29–31 °C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent easterly onshore flow and scattered convective activity over the past several days have suppressed insolation and held observed highs near 26–28 °C, consistent with climatological July averages of 27–28 °C. Model spread arises primarily from differences in the timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms versus any clearing that could allow stronger surface heating, with stronger ridging or delayed precipitation potentially lifting readings into the low 30s. Updated short-range guidance and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers refining resolution odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on July 15?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 15?
30°C 23%
28°C 20%
29°C 19%
31°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
6%
28°C
20%
29°C
19%
30°C
23%
31°C
19%
32°C
9%
33°C
7%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 23%
28°C 20%
29°C 19%
31°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
25°C or below
$1,255 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$167 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$300 Vol.
6%
28°C
$829 Vol.
20%
29°C
$377 Vol.
19%
30°C
$269 Vol.
23%
31°C
$927 Vol.
19%
32°C
$256 Vol.
9%
33°C
$153 Vol.
7%
34°C
$444 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$73 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts for Qingdao on July 15 indicate modest uncertainty around peak temperatures near 29–31 °C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent easterly onshore flow and scattered convective activity over the past several days have suppressed insolation and held observed highs near 26–28 °C, consistent with climatological July averages of 27–28 °C. Model spread arises primarily from differences in the timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms versus any clearing that could allow stronger surface heating, with stronger ridging or delayed precipitation potentially lifting readings into the low 30s. Updated short-range guidance and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers refining resolution odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$5,050End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts for Qingdao on July 15 indicate modest uncertainty around peak temperatures near 29–31 °C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent easterly onshore flow and scattered convective activity over the past several days have suppressed insolation and held observed highs near 26–28 °C, consistent with climatological July averages of 27–28 °C. Model spread arises primarily from differences in the timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms versus any clearing that could allow stronger surface heating, with stronger ridging or delayed precipitation potentially lifting readings into the low 30s. Updated short-range guidance and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers refining resolution odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,050End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts for Qingdao on July 15 indicate modest uncertainty around peak temperatures near 29–31 °C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent easterly onshore flow and scattered convective activity over the past several days have suppressed insolation and held observed highs near 26–28 °C, consistent with climatological July averages of 27–28 °C. Model spread arises primarily from differences in the timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms versus any clearing that could allow stronger surface heating, with stronger ridging or delayed precipitation potentially lifting readings into the low 30s. Updated short-range guidance and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers refining resolution odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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