Forecast uncertainty for the minimum temperature in Paris on September 11 stems primarily from evolving model consensus on overnight cloud cover, wind speeds, and boundary-layer mixing two days out. Current guidance from sources like GFS indicates a low near 14°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly flow, limiting radiative cooling, though clearer intervals could allow drops to 12–13°C. Key variables include the strength of any incoming Atlantic moisture that might increase cloud insulation versus drier northerly advection enhancing nocturnal cooling, alongside typical urban heat-island moderation. The spread across 11–15°C outcomes reflects genuine divergence in ensemble runs and the short time remaining before resolution, with historical early-September minima averaging near 12°C providing limited additional constraint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 11?
14°C 40%
13°C 39%
12°C 18%
11°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
10°C or below
6%
11°C
16%
12°C
18%
13°C
32%
14°C
40%
15°C
16%
16°C
14%
17°C
3%
18°C
3%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
3%
14°C 40%
13°C 39%
12°C 18%
11°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
6%
11°C
$0 Vol.
16%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C
$338 Vol.
32%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
16%
16°C
$0 Vol.
14%
17°C
$0 Vol.
3%
18°C
$0 Vol.
3%
19°C
$0 Vol.
3%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty for the minimum temperature in Paris on September 11 stems primarily from evolving model consensus on overnight cloud cover, wind speeds, and boundary-layer mixing two days out. Current guidance from sources like GFS indicates a low near 14°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly flow, limiting radiative cooling, though clearer intervals could allow drops to 12–13°C. Key variables include the strength of any incoming Atlantic moisture that might increase cloud insulation versus drier northerly advection enhancing nocturnal cooling, alongside typical urban heat-island moderation. The spread across 11–15°C outcomes reflects genuine divergence in ensemble runs and the short time remaining before resolution, with historical early-September minima averaging near 12°C providing limited additional constraint.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$338End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty for the minimum temperature in Paris on September 11 stems primarily from evolving model consensus on overnight cloud cover, wind speeds, and boundary-layer mixing two days out. Current guidance from sources like GFS indicates a low near 14°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly flow, limiting radiative cooling, though clearer intervals could allow drops to 12–13°C. Key variables include the strength of any incoming Atlantic moisture that might increase cloud insulation versus drier northerly advection enhancing nocturnal cooling, alongside typical urban heat-island moderation. The spread across 11–15°C outcomes reflects genuine divergence in ensemble runs and the short time remaining before resolution, with historical early-September minima averaging near 12°C providing limited additional constraint.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$338End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty for the minimum temperature in Paris on September 11 stems primarily from evolving model consensus on overnight cloud cover, wind speeds, and boundary-layer mixing two days out. Current guidance from sources like GFS indicates a low near 14°C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly flow, limiting radiative cooling, though clearer intervals could allow drops to 12–13°C. Key variables include the strength of any incoming Atlantic moisture that might increase cloud insulation versus drier northerly advection enhancing nocturnal cooling, alongside typical urban heat-island moderation. The spread across 11–15°C outcomes reflects genuine divergence in ensemble runs and the short time remaining before resolution, with historical early-September minima averaging near 12°C providing limited additional constraint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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