Recent official forecasts and observational data from sources like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a minimum temperature of 23°C in Shanghai on September 17, 2026, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds around 5–10 km/h, and high humidity near 60–70% that limits nocturnal radiative cooling under typical late-summer subtropical conditions. Model consensus across GFS and regional ensembles supports this threshold, aligning with historical September minima averaging 22–24°C and current surface observations showing overnight lows stabilizing near 22–24°C. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability reflects this strong alignment, though modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture or unexpected clearing could allow dips to 21–22°C if radiative losses intensify before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 17?
23°C 98%
22°C 2%
21°C <1%
17°C or below <1%
NEW
$12,601 Vol.
NEW
$12,601 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
98%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
23°C 98%
22°C 2%
21°C <1%
17°C or below <1%
NEW
$12,601 Vol.
NEW
$12,601 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
17°C or below
$89 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$89 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$96 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,011 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,236 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,620 Vol.
2%
23°C
$3,206 Vol.
98%
24°C
$4,983 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$93 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$89 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$89 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts and observational data from sources like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a minimum temperature of 23°C in Shanghai on September 17, 2026, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds around 5–10 km/h, and high humidity near 60–70% that limits nocturnal radiative cooling under typical late-summer subtropical conditions. Model consensus across GFS and regional ensembles supports this threshold, aligning with historical September minima averaging 22–24°C and current surface observations showing overnight lows stabilizing near 22–24°C. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability reflects this strong alignment, though modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture or unexpected clearing could allow dips to 21–22°C if radiative losses intensify before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$12,601End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts and observational data from sources like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a minimum temperature of 23°C in Shanghai on September 17, 2026, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds around 5–10 km/h, and high humidity near 60–70% that limits nocturnal radiative cooling under typical late-summer subtropical conditions. Model consensus across GFS and regional ensembles supports this threshold, aligning with historical September minima averaging 22–24°C and current surface observations showing overnight lows stabilizing near 22–24°C. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability reflects this strong alignment, though modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture or unexpected clearing could allow dips to 21–22°C if radiative losses intensify before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,601End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts and observational data from sources like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a minimum temperature of 23°C in Shanghai on September 17, 2026, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds around 5–10 km/h, and high humidity near 60–70% that limits nocturnal radiative cooling under typical late-summer subtropical conditions. Model consensus across GFS and regional ensembles supports this threshold, aligning with historical September minima averaging 22–24°C and current surface observations showing overnight lows stabilizing near 22–24°C. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability reflects this strong alignment, though modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture or unexpected clearing could allow dips to 21–22°C if radiative losses intensify before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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