Recent forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Shenzhen through August 24, which typically suppress nighttime radiative cooling and hold minimum temperatures near 25–27°C. Historical August climatology for the Pearl River Delta shows average lows of 26–27°C, with occasional dips below 24°C only under stronger rain events or frontal passages. Current ensemble guidance shows modest disagreement on rainfall intensity and timing, creating the tight market split between sub-22°C outcomes and the 26–27°C cluster as traders weigh the latest model runs against the low probability of extreme cooling in late summer. Updated short-range forecasts expected within 48 hours could shift resolution odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 24?
21°C or below 86%
23°C 83%
27°C 46%
26°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
21°C or below
86%
22°C
44%
23°C
83%
24°C
11%
25°C
41%
26°C
46%
27°C
46%
28°C
23%
29°C
11%
30°C
44%
31°C or higher
5%
21°C or below 86%
23°C 83%
27°C 46%
26°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
21°C or below
$5 Vol.
86%
22°C
$5 Vol.
44%
23°C
$5 Vol.
83%
24°C
$0 Vol.
11%
25°C
$0 Vol.
41%
26°C
$0 Vol.
46%
27°C
$0 Vol.
46%
28°C
$0 Vol.
23%
29°C
$0 Vol.
11%
30°C
$5 Vol.
44%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Shenzhen through August 24, which typically suppress nighttime radiative cooling and hold minimum temperatures near 25–27°C. Historical August climatology for the Pearl River Delta shows average lows of 26–27°C, with occasional dips below 24°C only under stronger rain events or frontal passages. Current ensemble guidance shows modest disagreement on rainfall intensity and timing, creating the tight market split between sub-22°C outcomes and the 26–27°C cluster as traders weigh the latest model runs against the low probability of extreme cooling in late summer. Updated short-range forecasts expected within 48 hours could shift resolution odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Shenzhen through August 24, which typically suppress nighttime radiative cooling and hold minimum temperatures near 25–27°C. Historical August climatology for the Pearl River Delta shows average lows of 26–27°C, with occasional dips below 24°C only under stronger rain events or frontal passages. Current ensemble guidance shows modest disagreement on rainfall intensity and timing, creating the tight market split between sub-22°C outcomes and the 26–27°C cluster as traders weigh the latest model runs against the low probability of extreme cooling in late summer. Updated short-range forecasts expected within 48 hours could shift resolution odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Shenzhen through August 24, which typically suppress nighttime radiative cooling and hold minimum temperatures near 25–27°C. Historical August climatology for the Pearl River Delta shows average lows of 26–27°C, with occasional dips below 24°C only under stronger rain events or frontal passages. Current ensemble guidance shows modest disagreement on rainfall intensity and timing, creating the tight market split between sub-22°C outcomes and the 26–27°C cluster as traders weigh the latest model runs against the low probability of extreme cooling in late summer. Updated short-range forecasts expected within 48 hours could shift resolution odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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