**Recent model consensus from regional forecasts points to overnight minima near 24–26°C for Shenzhen on September 12, driven by persistent subtropical moisture, light northeast winds, and scattered convective activity that limits strong radiational cooling.** High humidity (often 80–90%) and cloud cover from potential thunderstorms reduce the diurnal temperature range, keeping lows above historical early-September averages around 24°C. Trader emphasis on the 21°C-or-below outcome (49.5% implied probability) likely reflects uncertainty in forecast spread—possible clearer skies or a weak frontal passage could enhance cooling—while the 31°C+ bucket (23.5%) captures upside risk if convection suppresses overnight. Upcoming CMA and global model runs will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 12?
21°C or below 99%
31°C or higher 47%
24°C 40%
25°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
21°C or below
99%
22°C
37%
23°C
37%
24°C
40%
25°C
40%
26°C
38%
27°C
37%
28°C
8%
29°C
19%
30°C
19%
31°C or higher
47%
21°C or below 99%
31°C or higher 47%
24°C 40%
25°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
99%
22°C
$0 Vol.
37%
23°C
$0 Vol.
37%
24°C
$0 Vol.
40%
25°C
$0 Vol.
40%
26°C
$0 Vol.
38%
27°C
$0 Vol.
37%
28°C
$0 Vol.
8%
29°C
$0 Vol.
19%
30°C
$0 Vol.
19%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from regional forecasts points to overnight minima near 24–26°C for Shenzhen on September 12, driven by persistent subtropical moisture, light northeast winds, and scattered convective activity that limits strong radiational cooling.**
High humidity (often 80–90%) and cloud cover from potential thunderstorms reduce the diurnal temperature range, keeping lows above historical early-September averages around 24°C. Trader emphasis on the 21°C-or-below outcome (49.5% implied probability) likely reflects uncertainty in forecast spread—possible clearer skies or a weak frontal passage could enhance cooling—while the 31°C+ bucket (23.5%) captures upside risk if convection suppresses overnight. Upcoming CMA and global model runs will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from regional forecasts points to overnight minima near 24–26°C for Shenzhen on September 12, driven by persistent subtropical moisture, light northeast winds, and scattered convective activity that limits strong radiational cooling.**
High humidity (often 80–90%) and cloud cover from potential thunderstorms reduce the diurnal temperature range, keeping lows above historical early-September averages around 24°C. Trader emphasis on the 21°C-or-below outcome (49.5% implied probability) likely reflects uncertainty in forecast spread—possible clearer skies or a weak frontal passage could enhance cooling—while the 31°C+ bucket (23.5%) captures upside risk if convection suppresses overnight. Upcoming CMA and global model runs will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model consensus from regional forecasts points to overnight minima near 24–26°C for Shenzhen on September 12, driven by persistent subtropical moisture, light northeast winds, and scattered convective activity that limits strong radiational cooling.** High humidity (often 80–90%) and cloud cover from potential thunderstorms reduce the diurnal temperature range, keeping lows above historical early-September averages around 24°C. Trader emphasis on the 21°C-or-below outcome (49.5% implied probability) likely reflects uncertainty in forecast spread—possible clearer skies or a weak frontal passage could enhance cooling—while the 31°C+ bucket (23.5%) captures upside risk if convection suppresses overnight. Upcoming CMA and global model runs will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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