The Makerfield by-election, scheduled for 18 June, centers on a contest between Labour candidate Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a Westminster return, and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and 2024 candidate positioned as an anti-establishment challenger. Recent polling shows Burnham holding a narrow lead or near-tie for first place, which underpins trader consensus that Kenyon will finish second. Smaller-party candidates including Rebecca Shepherd of Restore Britain register single-digit support and remain distant. A recent BBC debate highlighted immigration, local identity, and cost-of-living issues without shifting the two-way dynamic, while scrutiny of Kenyon’s past social media posts has not altered the primary vote split. The result could influence broader Labour leadership positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRobert Kenyon 83%
Andy Burnham 8.4%
Rebecca Shepherd 5.9%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$63,999 Vol.
$63,999 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
Robert Kenyon
83%
Andy Burnham
8%
Rebecca Shepherd
6%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
John Skipworth
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
Robert Kenyon 83%
Andy Burnham 8.4%
Rebecca Shepherd 5.9%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$63,999 Vol.
$63,999 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
Robert Kenyon
$4,428 Vol.
83%
Andy Burnham
$2,687 Vol.
8%
Rebecca Shepherd
$52,680 Vol.
6%
Simon Finkelstein
$1,369 Vol.
<1%
John Skipworth
$1,074 Vol.
<1%
Maria Deery
$740 Vol.
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
$1,021 Vol.
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).The Makerfield by-election, scheduled for 18 June, centers on a contest between Labour candidate Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a Westminster return, and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and 2024 candidate positioned as an anti-establishment challenger. Recent polling shows Burnham holding a narrow lead or near-tie for first place, which underpins trader consensus that Kenyon will finish second. Smaller-party candidates including Rebecca Shepherd of Restore Britain register single-digit support and remain distant. A recent BBC debate highlighted immigration, local identity, and cost-of-living issues without shifting the two-way dynamic, while scrutiny of Kenyon’s past social media posts has not altered the primary vote split. The result could influence broader Labour leadership positioning.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$63,999End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).The Makerfield by-election, scheduled for 18 June, centers on a contest between Labour candidate Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a Westminster return, and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and 2024 candidate positioned as an anti-establishment challenger. Recent polling shows Burnham holding a narrow lead or near-tie for first place, which underpins trader consensus that Kenyon will finish second. Smaller-party candidates including Rebecca Shepherd of Restore Britain register single-digit support and remain distant. A recent BBC debate highlighted immigration, local identity, and cost-of-living issues without shifting the two-way dynamic, while scrutiny of Kenyon’s past social media posts has not altered the primary vote split. The result could influence broader Labour leadership positioning.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Volume
$63,999End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Makerfield by-election, scheduled for 18 June, centers on a contest between Labour candidate Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor seeking a Westminster return, and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and 2024 candidate positioned as an anti-establishment challenger. Recent polling shows Burnham holding a narrow lead or near-tie for first place, which underpins trader consensus that Kenyon will finish second. Smaller-party candidates including Rebecca Shepherd of Restore Britain register single-digit support and remain distant. A recent BBC debate highlighted immigration, local identity, and cost-of-living issues without shifting the two-way dynamic, while scrutiny of Kenyon’s past social media posts has not altered the primary vote split. The result could influence broader Labour leadership positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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