Persistent energy price pressures from the Iran conflict, which drove April 2026 CPI to a 0.6% month-over-month gain and 3.8% year-over-year pace, remain the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for the May reading. With gasoline costs still elevated though showing signs of partial stabilization, markets assign nearly identical implied probabilities to 0.6% and 0.5% outcomes as participants weigh potential second-round effects into core services against moderating shelter and goods components. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether the supply shock broadens or stays contained, with upcoming crude oil trajectory and any early June data revisions serving as key swing catalysts ahead of the BLS release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.6% 42%
0.5% 38%
0.4% 13%
0.3% 9.8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 10, 2026
≤0.1%
4%
0.2%
7%
0.3%
12%
0.4%
13%
0.5%
38%
0.6%
41%
0.7%
9%
0.8%
5%
≥0.9%
6%
0.6% 42%
0.5% 38%
0.4% 13%
0.3% 9.8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 10, 2026
≤0.1%
$54 Vol.
4%
0.2%
$52 Vol.
7%
0.3%
$399 Vol.
12%
0.4%
$535 Vol.
13%
0.5%
$29 Vol.
38%
0.6%
$268 Vol.
41%
0.7%
$27 Vol.
9%
0.8%
$77 Vol.
5%
≥0.9%
$89 Vol.
6%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Persistent energy price pressures from the Iran conflict, which drove April 2026 CPI to a 0.6% month-over-month gain and 3.8% year-over-year pace, remain the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for the May reading. With gasoline costs still elevated though showing signs of partial stabilization, markets assign nearly identical implied probabilities to 0.6% and 0.5% outcomes as participants weigh potential second-round effects into core services against moderating shelter and goods components. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether the supply shock broadens or stays contained, with upcoming crude oil trajectory and any early June data revisions serving as key swing catalysts ahead of the BLS release.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$1,529End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Persistent energy price pressures from the Iran conflict, which drove April 2026 CPI to a 0.6% month-over-month gain and 3.8% year-over-year pace, remain the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for the May reading. With gasoline costs still elevated though showing signs of partial stabilization, markets assign nearly identical implied probabilities to 0.6% and 0.5% outcomes as participants weigh potential second-round effects into core services against moderating shelter and goods components. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether the supply shock broadens or stays contained, with upcoming crude oil trajectory and any early June data revisions serving as key swing catalysts ahead of the BLS release.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,529End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent energy price pressures from the Iran conflict, which drove April 2026 CPI to a 0.6% month-over-month gain and 3.8% year-over-year pace, remain the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for the May reading. With gasoline costs still elevated though showing signs of partial stabilization, markets assign nearly identical implied probabilities to 0.6% and 0.5% outcomes as participants weigh potential second-round effects into core services against moderating shelter and goods components. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether the supply shock broadens or stays contained, with upcoming crude oil trajectory and any early June data revisions serving as key swing catalysts ahead of the BLS release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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