The April 2026 employment report, showing nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, anchors trader sentiment for the May reading due May 8 data release. This outcome, paired with modest upward revisions to prior months and steady wage growth around 3.6 percent year-over-year, supports the near-even split in market-implied odds between 4.3 percent at 37.5 percent probability and 4.4 percent at 36.0 percent. Broader labor-market indicators, including a slight dip in participation and rising U-6 measures, signal ongoing softening that keeps 4.2 percent at 22.0 percent and higher prints like 4.5 percent at 10.5 percent in play. With the May report scheduled for June 5, traders are pricing in the potential for small shifts in jobless claims or household-survey volatility to tip the balance between these closely contested levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMay Unemployment Rate
May Unemployment Rate
4.3% 38%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 16%
4.1% 11.5%
NEW
NEW
Jun 5, 2026
≤3.9%
3%
4.0%
11%
4.1%
12%
4.2%
23%
4.3%
38%
4.4%
36%
4.5%
11%
4.6%
4%
≥4.7%
5%
4.3% 38%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 16%
4.1% 11.5%
NEW
NEW
Jun 5, 2026
≤3.9%
$46 Vol.
3%
4.0%
$73 Vol.
11%
4.1%
$45 Vol.
12%
4.2%
$38 Vol.
23%
4.3%
$107 Vol.
38%
4.4%
$54 Vol.
36%
4.5%
$50 Vol.
11%
4.6%
$45 Vol.
4%
≥4.7%
$52 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The April 2026 employment report, showing nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, anchors trader sentiment for the May reading due May 8 data release. This outcome, paired with modest upward revisions to prior months and steady wage growth around 3.6 percent year-over-year, supports the near-even split in market-implied odds between 4.3 percent at 37.5 percent probability and 4.4 percent at 36.0 percent. Broader labor-market indicators, including a slight dip in participation and rising U-6 measures, signal ongoing softening that keeps 4.2 percent at 22.0 percent and higher prints like 4.5 percent at 10.5 percent in play. With the May report scheduled for June 5, traders are pricing in the potential for small shifts in jobless claims or household-survey volatility to tip the balance between these closely contested levels.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$511End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The April 2026 employment report, showing nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, anchors trader sentiment for the May reading due May 8 data release. This outcome, paired with modest upward revisions to prior months and steady wage growth around 3.6 percent year-over-year, supports the near-even split in market-implied odds between 4.3 percent at 37.5 percent probability and 4.4 percent at 36.0 percent. Broader labor-market indicators, including a slight dip in participation and rising U-6 measures, signal ongoing softening that keeps 4.2 percent at 22.0 percent and higher prints like 4.5 percent at 10.5 percent in play. With the May report scheduled for June 5, traders are pricing in the potential for small shifts in jobless claims or household-survey volatility to tip the balance between these closely contested levels.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$511End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The April 2026 employment report, showing nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, anchors trader sentiment for the May reading due May 8 data release. This outcome, paired with modest upward revisions to prior months and steady wage growth around 3.6 percent year-over-year, supports the near-even split in market-implied odds between 4.3 percent at 37.5 percent probability and 4.4 percent at 36.0 percent. Broader labor-market indicators, including a slight dip in participation and rising U-6 measures, signal ongoing softening that keeps 4.2 percent at 22.0 percent and higher prints like 4.5 percent at 10.5 percent in play. With the May report scheduled for June 5, traders are pricing in the potential for small shifts in jobless claims or household-survey volatility to tip the balance between these closely contested levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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