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Politics·Missouri

MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

icon for MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Politics·Missouri

MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

Thanedar <4% 1.5%

McKinney 16%+ <1%

McKinney 12–16% <1%

McKinney 8–12% <1%

Polymarket

$15,424 Vol.

Thanedar <4% 1.5%

McKinney 16%+ <1%

McKinney 12–16% <1%

McKinney 8–12% <1%

Polymarket

$15,424 Vol.

McKinney 16%+

$3,893 Vol.

<1%

McKinney 12–16%

$2,805 Vol.

<1%

McKinney 8–12%

$617 Vol.

<1%

McKinney 4–8%

$708 Vol.

37%

McKinney <4%

$2,657 Vol.

50%

Thanedar <4%

$2,557 Vol.

2%

Thanedar 4–8%

$740 Vol.

<1%

The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The August 4 Democratic primary in Michigan’s 13th District produced a narrow victory for state Rep. Donavan McKinney over incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar, with unofficial results showing McKinney at 51.9% and Thanedar at 48.1% for a margin near 3.8–4 percentage points out of roughly 111,000–112,000 votes cast. This outcome in the solidly Democratic Detroit-area seat reflects a tight contest between a DSA-backed progressive challenger and the two-term incumbent, despite Thanedar’s substantial cash-on-hand advantage. Trader positioning remains split between McKinney under 4% and the 4–8% band because final certified totals, potential adjustments from remaining precincts, or any recount could shift the exact margin across the threshold. No major post-election developments have altered the standing results to date.

The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$15,424
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 7:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The August 4 Democratic primary in Michigan’s 13th District produced a narrow victory for state Rep. Donavan McKinney over incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar, with unofficial results showing McKinney at 51.9% and Thanedar at 48.1% for a margin near 3.8–4 percentage points out of roughly 111,000–112,000 votes cast. This outcome in the solidly Democratic Detroit-area seat reflects a tight contest between a DSA-backed progressive challenger and the two-term incumbent, despite Thanedar’s substantial cash-on-hand advantage. Trader positioning remains split between McKinney under 4% and the 4–8% band because final certified totals, potential adjustments from remaining precincts, or any recount could shift the exact margin across the threshold. No major post-election developments have altered the standing results to date.

The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$15,424
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 7:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "McKinney <4%" at 50%, followed by "McKinney 4–8%" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" has generated $15.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" is "McKinney <4%" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "McKinney 4–8%" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.