The persistent deadlock among Peace Implementation Council members over appointing a permanent High Representative has kept the position vacant since Christian Schmidt’s resignation took effect on July 1, with Louis J. Crishock serving only in an acting capacity. Transatlantic divisions—particularly U.S. support for Antonio Zanardi Landi versus European preferences for candidates such as René Troccaz or Peter Sørensen—have blocked consensus well past the missed July 14 target, fueling trader expectations that the OHR may not see a new appointee before year-end. Recent press coverage of U.S. reconsideration of its role in the Dayton framework and reports of a “silent erosion” of the office have reinforced the elevated probability assigned to no appointment in 2026, while the modest shares for individual diplomats reflect the lack of any frontrunner able to secure the required unanimous backing.