**US strike on Colombia by December 31?** Close bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s new conservative government has kept the implied probability of a direct U.S. drone, missile, or air strike on Colombian territory low. President Abelardo De La Espriella, inaugurated in August 2026, has aligned with the Trump administration on counter-narcotics and operations against the ELN and other armed groups. Recent steps include U.S. transfer of MQ-9 Reaper drones for surveillance (announced early October), intelligence sharing, a $1 billion security assistance package, and Colombia’s participation in the Shield of the Americas coalition. Colombian officials have stressed that their forces will conduct ground operations while welcoming U.S. support short of direct strikes on sovereign soil. Ongoing U.S. maritime interdiction strikes target vessels in international waters, not Colombian territory. No scheduled events in the immediate resolution window appear likely to shift the current trader consensus.