Spain's opposition parties, led by the center-right PP, have explicitly ruled out advancing a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez by the June 30 deadline due to insufficient votes in Congress, with key groups like Catalan pro-independence parties declining support to avoid empowering the far-right Vox. Sánchez's minority government has faced repeated corruption probes involving allies and family members, alongside regional electoral setbacks, yet maintains parliamentary stability through the current term ending in 2027. Traders assign a 95.5% probability to no vote occurring because these fragmented dynamics and procedural requirements create high barriers in the short window, though a sudden major scandal or unexpected coalition shift could still alter the timeline.