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icon for Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?
Geopolitics·Kim Jong Un

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?

icon for Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?
Geopolitics·Kim Jong Un

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?

Sep 30

Sep 30

3 49.0%

2 40%

4+ 11.9%

1 1.3%

Polymarket

$43,519 Vol.

3 49.0%

2 40%

4+ 11.9%

1 1.3%

Polymarket

$43,519 Vol.

1

$11,571 Vol.

1%

2

$3,305 Vol.

37%

3

$2,350 Vol.

49%

4+

$2,985 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's September 2026 missile activity centers on two distinct launch events so far: multiple short-range ballistic missiles fired from the Wonsan area on September 12 during a joint firepower drill involving ballistic missiles, rockets, cruise missiles, and drones, and a short-range ballistic missile plus a follow-on projectile on September 20. These tests occurred amid Pyongyang's explicit vows of responsive measures to U.S.-South Korea-Japan exercises and its rejection of an IAEA resolution on nuclear activities. With ten days left in the month and no indication of an imminent large-scale salvo, traders have converged on totals of two or three tests as the most probable outcomes based on the established cadence of periodic demonstrations rather than continuous escalation.

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time.

If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.

Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.

Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.

Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$43,519
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's September 2026 missile activity centers on two distinct launch events so far: multiple short-range ballistic missiles fired from the Wonsan area on September 12 during a joint firepower drill involving ballistic missiles, rockets, cruise missiles, and drones, and a short-range ballistic missile plus a follow-on projectile on September 20. These tests occurred amid Pyongyang's explicit vows of responsive measures to U.S.-South Korea-Japan exercises and its rejection of an IAEA resolution on nuclear activities. With ten days left in the month and no indication of an imminent large-scale salvo, traders have converged on totals of two or three tests as the most probable outcomes based on the established cadence of periodic demonstrations rather than continuous escalation.

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time.

If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.

Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.

Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.

Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$43,519
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3" at 49%, followed by "2" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?" has generated $43.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?" is "3" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.