MrBeast’s next long-form upload carries near-certain market-implied odds for 35–40 million day-one views because the creator’s 516 million subscribers, optimized thumbnails, and YouTube algorithmic priority have produced a reliable mid-30 million opening band across recent Saturday releases. The September 5 Gemini-branded survival challenge “We Survived The Most Extreme Places On Earth” landed near the lower end of that range, underscoring how branded integrations without massive giveaways or celebrity cameos can moderate velocity while still clearing the floor. Comparable titles such as “Escape 100 Cops” and “Last To Leave Mansion” show how production scale and cross-platform promotion reliably deliver these numbers. An upset into a lower bracket would require an unusually subdued concept or delayed drop that limits early algorithmic push, while a breakout above 40 million would need an especially viral high-stakes stunt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
35–40M 100.0%
<15M <1%
15–20M <1%
20–25M <1%
$422,951 Vol.
$422,951 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<15M
No
15–20M
No
20–25M
No
25–30M
No
30–35M
No
35–40M
Yes
40M+
No
35–40M 100.0%
<15M <1%
15–20M <1%
20–25M <1%
$422,951 Vol.
$422,951 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<15M
$9,150 Vol.
No
15–20M
$18,015 Vol.
No
20–25M
$57,087 Vol.
No
25–30M
$70,640 Vol.
No
30–35M
$116,934 Vol.
No
35–40M
$57,395 Vol.
Yes
40M+
$93,732 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier.
If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration.
Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.MrBeast’s next long-form upload carries near-certain market-implied odds for 35–40 million day-one views because the creator’s 516 million subscribers, optimized thumbnails, and YouTube algorithmic priority have produced a reliable mid-30 million opening band across recent Saturday releases. The September 5 Gemini-branded survival challenge “We Survived The Most Extreme Places On Earth” landed near the lower end of that range, underscoring how branded integrations without massive giveaways or celebrity cameos can moderate velocity while still clearing the floor. Comparable titles such as “Escape 100 Cops” and “Last To Leave Mansion” show how production scale and cross-platform promotion reliably deliver these numbers. An upset into a lower bracket would require an unusually subdued concept or delayed drop that limits early algorithmic push, while a breakout above 40 million would need an especially viral high-stakes stunt.
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier.
If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration.
Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration.
Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volume
$422,951End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier.
If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration.
Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.MrBeast’s next long-form upload carries near-certain market-implied odds for 35–40 million day-one views because the creator’s 516 million subscribers, optimized thumbnails, and YouTube algorithmic priority have produced a reliable mid-30 million opening band across recent Saturday releases. The September 5 Gemini-branded survival challenge “We Survived The Most Extreme Places On Earth” landed near the lower end of that range, underscoring how branded integrations without massive giveaways or celebrity cameos can moderate velocity while still clearing the floor. Comparable titles such as “Escape 100 Cops” and “Last To Leave Mansion” show how production scale and cross-platform promotion reliably deliver these numbers. An upset into a lower bracket would require an unusually subdued concept or delayed drop that limits early algorithmic push, while a breakout above 40 million would need an especially viral high-stakes stunt.
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier.
If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration.
Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration.
Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Volume
$422,951End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
MrBeast’s next long-form upload carries near-certain market-implied odds for 35–40 million day-one views because the creator’s 516 million subscribers, optimized thumbnails, and YouTube algorithmic priority have produced a reliable mid-30 million opening band across recent Saturday releases. The September 5 Gemini-branded survival challenge “We Survived The Most Extreme Places On Earth” landed near the lower end of that range, underscoring how branded integrations without massive giveaways or celebrity cameos can moderate velocity while still clearing the floor. Comparable titles such as “Escape 100 Cops” and “Last To Leave Mansion” show how production scale and cross-platform promotion reliably deliver these numbers. An upset into a lower bracket would require an unusually subdued concept or delayed drop that limits early algorithmic push, while a breakout above 40 million would need an especially viral high-stakes stunt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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