Large federal budget deficits, projected by the CBO at $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2026 and rising thereafter, continue to drive steady increases in gross national debt, which reached approximately $40 trillion by mid-August 2026. The 2025 reconciliation legislation raised the debt limit to $41.1 trillion while expanding deficits through tax provisions and new spending on defense and border security, offset only partially by tariff revenues. With interest costs growing and no enacted measures to produce primary surpluses, debt held by the public is expected to climb from 101 percent of GDP in 2026 toward higher levels. The next debt-limit confrontation is anticipated in 2027, but near-term legislative or economic shifts capable of reversing the upward trajectory remain absent.