**Trader consensus on the “No” outcome (76.5% implied probability) reflects sustained White House support for Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense (also styled Secretary of War) despite ongoing Pentagon leadership turnover.** Hegseth, confirmed by the Senate in January 2025, continues to direct department operations, including during the protracted Iran conflict, and has conducted recent public engagements such as the Arsenal of Freedom Tour in Texas in mid-September 2026. Key developments reinforcing this positioning include repeated White House statements affirming President Trump’s “complete trust” in Hegseth and alignment on priorities like reversing prior DEI policies and emphasizing readiness standards. Subordinate departures—most notably Army Secretary Dan Driscoll’s resignation on August 31, 2026, after clashes over senior officer firings and force modernization—have created vacancies but have not prompted action against Hegseth. A narrow Republican impeachment resolution introduced in mid-September over Iran-related authorities has attracted minimal support and faces procedural barriers. Isolated calls from some Republican senators for review or replacement have not translated into broader congressional or administration momentum ahead of the December 31 resolution date. Hegseth’s active schedule of speeches, recruit ceremonies, and policy announcements through September 2026 further signals continuity. While internal frictions and criticism persist, the absence of credible removal signals from the executive branch underpins traders’ assessment that he will remain in post through year-end.