Traders see a 95.5% chance that Pete Hegseth remains Secretary of Defense through June 30, driven by continued White House backing and the absence of major controversies or performance concerns since confirmation. Hegseth has advanced administration priorities on military readiness, force modernization, and border security without triggering Senate holds, ethics investigations, or public clashes with congressional leaders in recent weeks. Historical patterns show new cabinet secretaries rarely depart in their first 18 months absent acute scandals or policy ruptures. The only realistic paths to removal before the deadline would involve sudden health issues, a high-profile diplomatic misstep, or an unforeseen ethics allegation that forces resignation or prompts presidential action.