**Hong Kong's July rainfall is driven primarily by the southwest monsoon, which transports moist air from the South China Sea, fueling frequent thunderstorms and showers, alongside the risk of tropical cyclones that can deliver extreme localized totals.** Historical averages hover near 350–400 mm, but the distribution is wide due to occasional multi-week dry spells and episodic heavy events. In 2026, June already recorded 600.5 mm (above normal), and early July has featured repeated rainstorm warnings and flooding. With roughly three weeks remaining, trader uncertainty across the 50 % bins reflects the potential for either persistent monsoon trough activity or a shift to drier subtropical ridge dominance, plus the low but high-impact probability of a typhoon landfall or passage that could add hundreds of millimeters in days. Official Hong Kong Observatory monitoring of monsoon strength and tropical cyclone tracks will be the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in July?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?
575-600mm 47%
500-525mm 46%
425-450mm 45%
400-425mm 42%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
<400mm
45%
400-425mm
42%
425-450mm
45%
450-475mm
27%
475-500mm
41%
500-525mm
46%
525-550mm
42%
550-575mm
41%
575-600mm
47%
600mm+
38%
575-600mm 47%
500-525mm 46%
425-450mm 45%
400-425mm 42%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
<400mm
$5 Vol.
45%
400-425mm
$0 Vol.
42%
425-450mm
$0 Vol.
45%
450-475mm
$0 Vol.
27%
475-500mm
$26 Vol.
41%
500-525mm
$0 Vol.
46%
525-550mm
$0 Vol.
42%
550-575mm
$0 Vol.
41%
575-600mm
$0 Vol.
47%
600mm+
$16 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Hong Kong's July rainfall is driven primarily by the southwest monsoon, which transports moist air from the South China Sea, fueling frequent thunderstorms and showers, alongside the risk of tropical cyclones that can deliver extreme localized totals.** Historical averages hover near 350–400 mm, but the distribution is wide due to occasional multi-week dry spells and episodic heavy events. In 2026, June already recorded 600.5 mm (above normal), and early July has featured repeated rainstorm warnings and flooding. With roughly three weeks remaining, trader uncertainty across the 50 % bins reflects the potential for either persistent monsoon trough activity or a shift to drier subtropical ridge dominance, plus the low but high-impact probability of a typhoon landfall or passage that could add hundreds of millimeters in days. Official Hong Kong Observatory monitoring of monsoon strength and tropical cyclone tracks will be the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$47End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Hong Kong's July rainfall is driven primarily by the southwest monsoon, which transports moist air from the South China Sea, fueling frequent thunderstorms and showers, alongside the risk of tropical cyclones that can deliver extreme localized totals.** Historical averages hover near 350–400 mm, but the distribution is wide due to occasional multi-week dry spells and episodic heavy events. In 2026, June already recorded 600.5 mm (above normal), and early July has featured repeated rainstorm warnings and flooding. With roughly three weeks remaining, trader uncertainty across the 50 % bins reflects the potential for either persistent monsoon trough activity or a shift to drier subtropical ridge dominance, plus the low but high-impact probability of a typhoon landfall or passage that could add hundreds of millimeters in days. Official Hong Kong Observatory monitoring of monsoon strength and tropical cyclone tracks will be the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$47End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Hong Kong's July rainfall is driven primarily by the southwest monsoon, which transports moist air from the South China Sea, fueling frequent thunderstorms and showers, alongside the risk of tropical cyclones that can deliver extreme localized totals.** Historical averages hover near 350–400 mm, but the distribution is wide due to occasional multi-week dry spells and episodic heavy events. In 2026, June already recorded 600.5 mm (above normal), and early July has featured repeated rainstorm warnings and flooding. With roughly three weeks remaining, trader uncertainty across the 50 % bins reflects the potential for either persistent monsoon trough activity or a shift to drier subtropical ridge dominance, plus the low but high-impact probability of a typhoon landfall or passage that could add hundreds of millimeters in days. Official Hong Kong Observatory monitoring of monsoon strength and tropical cyclone tracks will be the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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