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Política·São Tomé

Vencedor das Eleições Presidenciais de São Tomé e Príncipe

icon for Vencedor das Eleições Presidenciais de São Tomé e Príncipe
Política·São Tomé

Vencedor das Eleições Presidenciais de São Tomé e Príncipe

Carlos Vila Nova 52%

Nito Abreu 28%

Jorge Bom Jesus 21%

Elsa Pinto 1.9%

Polymarket

$13,958 Vol.

Carlos Vila Nova 52%

Nito Abreu 28%

Jorge Bom Jesus 21%

Elsa Pinto 1.9%

Polymarket

$13,958 Vol.

icon for Carlos Vila Nova

Carlos Vila Nova

$4,213 Vol.

52%

icon for Nito Abreu

Nito Abreu

$1,258 Vol.

28%

icon for Jorge Bom Jesus

Jorge Bom Jesus

$6,041 Vol.

21%

icon for Elsa Pinto

Elsa Pinto

$1,937 Vol.

2%

icon for Nino Monteiro

Nino Monteiro

$509 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.São Tomé and Príncipe’s July 19, 2026 presidential election features a fragmented field of more than two dozen candidates, including incumbent Carlos Vila Nova running independently, ADI’s Nito Abreu, MLSTP-linked Elsa Pinto, independent former prime minister Jorge Bom Jesus, and Nino Monteiro backed by Movimento Independente dos Cidadãos/Partido Socialista. Internal party tensions—such as ADI’s decision to bypass Vila Nova and MLSTP divisions—have prevented any contender from consolidating broad support ahead of the first-round vote. Recent developments include MLSTP’s reported backing of Vila Nova and signals that Bom Jesus may withdraw, yet the absence of consolidated coalitions or decisive polling keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered. A potential August runoff and last-minute endorsements or campaign momentum could separate frontrunners in the final weeks.

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.
Volume
$13,958
Data de Término
19 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 23, 2026, 9:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.São Tomé and Príncipe’s July 19, 2026 presidential election features a fragmented field of more than two dozen candidates, including incumbent Carlos Vila Nova running independently, ADI’s Nito Abreu, MLSTP-linked Elsa Pinto, independent former prime minister Jorge Bom Jesus, and Nino Monteiro backed by Movimento Independente dos Cidadãos/Partido Socialista. Internal party tensions—such as ADI’s decision to bypass Vila Nova and MLSTP divisions—have prevented any contender from consolidating broad support ahead of the first-round vote. Recent developments include MLSTP’s reported backing of Vila Nova and signals that Bom Jesus may withdraw, yet the absence of consolidated coalitions or decisive polling keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered. A potential August runoff and last-minute endorsements or campaign momentum could separate frontrunners in the final weeks.

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.
Volume
$13,958
Data de Término
19 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 23, 2026, 9:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das Eleições Presidenciais de São Tomé e Príncipe" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Carlos Vila Nova" at 52%, followed by "Nito Abreu" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das Eleições Presidenciais de São Tomé e Príncipe" has generated $14K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das Eleições Presidenciais de São Tomé e Príncipe," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das Eleições Presidenciais de São Tomé e Príncipe" is "Carlos Vila Nova" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nito Abreu" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das Eleições Presidenciais de São Tomé e Príncipe" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.