Traders see intense uncertainty around the second-ranked lab on Arena AI’s Text Arena Math leaderboard by late October, reflected in the broad 50% pricing across most named outcomes and a modest lead for Google at 38%. Recent model iterations from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 family and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants have dominated math-category Elo scores and MathArena benchmarks, yet rapid releases from Chinese labs—including Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen series, Z.ai’s GLM-5.2, and DeepSeek updates—have narrowed gaps on reasoning-heavy tasks. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, potential new capability demonstrations, and whether frontier labs can sustain gains in uncontaminated math competitions before the resolution date. The clustered probabilities underscore how quickly benchmark leadership can shift with a single high-performing release or optimization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 39%
Alibaba 17%
Z.ai 9%
Xiaomi 9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
39%
Alibaba
17%
Z.ai
9%
Xiaomi
9%
OpenAI
20%
Anthropic
6%
DeepSeek
5%
Meituan
4%
ByteDance
4%
Meta
4%
Baidu
4%
Microsoft
4%
Amazon
3%
StepFun
3%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Tencent
2%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Nvidia
5%
Google 39%
Alibaba 17%
Z.ai 9%
Xiaomi 9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
$6,845 Vol.
39%
Alibaba
$304 Vol.
17%
Z.ai
$224 Vol.
9%
Xiaomi
$62 Vol.
9%
OpenAI
$129 Vol.
20%
Anthropic
$100 Vol.
6%
DeepSeek
$66 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$483 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$132 Vol.
4%
Meta
$64 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$64 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$260 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$194 Vol.
3%
StepFun
$147 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$64 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$59 Vol.
3%
Tencent
$217 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$99 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$135 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$228 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see intense uncertainty around the second-ranked lab on Arena AI’s Text Arena Math leaderboard by late October, reflected in the broad 50% pricing across most named outcomes and a modest lead for Google at 38%. Recent model iterations from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 family and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants have dominated math-category Elo scores and MathArena benchmarks, yet rapid releases from Chinese labs—including Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen series, Z.ai’s GLM-5.2, and DeepSeek updates—have narrowed gaps on reasoning-heavy tasks. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, potential new capability demonstrations, and whether frontier labs can sustain gains in uncontaminated math competitions before the resolution date. The clustered probabilities underscore how quickly benchmark leadership can shift with a single high-performing release or optimization.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$9,874End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see intense uncertainty around the second-ranked lab on Arena AI’s Text Arena Math leaderboard by late October, reflected in the broad 50% pricing across most named outcomes and a modest lead for Google at 38%. Recent model iterations from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 family and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants have dominated math-category Elo scores and MathArena benchmarks, yet rapid releases from Chinese labs—including Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen series, Z.ai’s GLM-5.2, and DeepSeek updates—have narrowed gaps on reasoning-heavy tasks. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, potential new capability demonstrations, and whether frontier labs can sustain gains in uncontaminated math competitions before the resolution date. The clustered probabilities underscore how quickly benchmark leadership can shift with a single high-performing release or optimization.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$9,874End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see intense uncertainty around the second-ranked lab on Arena AI’s Text Arena Math leaderboard by late October, reflected in the broad 50% pricing across most named outcomes and a modest lead for Google at 38%. Recent model iterations from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 family and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants have dominated math-category Elo scores and MathArena benchmarks, yet rapid releases from Chinese labs—including Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen series, Z.ai’s GLM-5.2, and DeepSeek updates—have narrowed gaps on reasoning-heavy tasks. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, potential new capability demonstrations, and whether frontier labs can sustain gains in uncontaminated math competitions before the resolution date. The clustered probabilities underscore how quickly benchmark leadership can shift with a single high-performing release or optimization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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