Google’s Gemini series, particularly its Deep Think reasoning mode and recent Gemini 3.x variants, has delivered standout results on advanced math benchmarks including IMO gold-medal performance, AIME-style problems, and extended reasoning tasks, positioning the lab as the clear market favorite at 65.5% implied probability for second place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of September. Traders appear to weigh Google’s consistent gains in multi-step mathematical reasoning and algorithmic discovery tools against stronger overall leaders such as Anthropic’s Claude models or Alibaba’s Qwen series, which currently top several independent math leaderboards. Lower probabilities for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese labs reflect recent benchmark volatility and the narrow gaps separating frontier systems, with no single lab holding a decisive edge in the specific arena format. Upcoming model releases or leaderboard refreshes through September remain the key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 66%
Alibaba 18%
OpenAI 10.0%
Anthropic 8%
$26,446 Vol.
$26,446 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
66%
Alibaba
18%
OpenAI
10%
Anthropic
8%
Meituan
2%
MiniMax
2%
Z.ai
1%
Tencent
1%
Moonshot
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
Microsoft
1%
Baidu
1%
Mistral
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Google 66%
Alibaba 18%
OpenAI 10.0%
Anthropic 8%
$26,446 Vol.
$26,446 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$9,083 Vol.
66%
Alibaba
$3,720 Vol.
18%
OpenAI
$2,505 Vol.
10%
Anthropic
$2,487 Vol.
8%
Meituan
$641 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$502 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$511 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$574 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$512 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$510 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$493 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$625 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$496 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$519 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$483 Vol.
1%
Meta
$461 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$522 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$530 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$909 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$363 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s Gemini series, particularly its Deep Think reasoning mode and recent Gemini 3.x variants, has delivered standout results on advanced math benchmarks including IMO gold-medal performance, AIME-style problems, and extended reasoning tasks, positioning the lab as the clear market favorite at 65.5% implied probability for second place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of September. Traders appear to weigh Google’s consistent gains in multi-step mathematical reasoning and algorithmic discovery tools against stronger overall leaders such as Anthropic’s Claude models or Alibaba’s Qwen series, which currently top several independent math leaderboards. Lower probabilities for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese labs reflect recent benchmark volatility and the narrow gaps separating frontier systems, with no single lab holding a decisive edge in the specific arena format. Upcoming model releases or leaderboard refreshes through September remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$26,446End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s Gemini series, particularly its Deep Think reasoning mode and recent Gemini 3.x variants, has delivered standout results on advanced math benchmarks including IMO gold-medal performance, AIME-style problems, and extended reasoning tasks, positioning the lab as the clear market favorite at 65.5% implied probability for second place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of September. Traders appear to weigh Google’s consistent gains in multi-step mathematical reasoning and algorithmic discovery tools against stronger overall leaders such as Anthropic’s Claude models or Alibaba’s Qwen series, which currently top several independent math leaderboards. Lower probabilities for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese labs reflect recent benchmark volatility and the narrow gaps separating frontier systems, with no single lab holding a decisive edge in the specific arena format. Upcoming model releases or leaderboard refreshes through September remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$26,446End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s Gemini series, particularly its Deep Think reasoning mode and recent Gemini 3.x variants, has delivered standout results on advanced math benchmarks including IMO gold-medal performance, AIME-style problems, and extended reasoning tasks, positioning the lab as the clear market favorite at 65.5% implied probability for second place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of September. Traders appear to weigh Google’s consistent gains in multi-step mathematical reasoning and algorithmic discovery tools against stronger overall leaders such as Anthropic’s Claude models or Alibaba’s Qwen series, which currently top several independent math leaderboards. Lower probabilities for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese labs reflect recent benchmark volatility and the narrow gaps separating frontier systems, with no single lab holding a decisive edge in the specific arena format. Upcoming model releases or leaderboard refreshes through September remain the key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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