**Trader sentiment for "The Uprising" opening weekend strongly favors a sub-$4.5 million domestic debut (58% implied probability), with the next bracket (4.5-5.5M) at just 21.5%.** This positioning stems from the film's mixed-to-mediocre critical reception, with Rotten Tomatoes scores hovering around 50-54% shortly before release. Reviewers have highlighted a lack of inspired direction from Paul Greengrass, generic storytelling in the 1381 Peasants' Revolt narrative, and a disappointing finale, despite praise for Andrew Garfield's lead performance. As an R-rated historical drama from Focus Features without major IP or franchise backing, the September 10/11 wide release faces typical challenges in a quiet late-summer window, where broad audience interest often lags behind awards-season or blockbuster fare. Pre-release tracking appears subdued, with limited evidence of strong presales, social buzz, or breakout marketing momentum to push it higher. The market's heavy weighting toward the lowest outcome reflects trader consensus on these headwinds, though an unexpected word-of-mouth surge or strong Garfield-driven turnout could still shift results within the tighter upper brackets. The 3-day weekend (September 11-13) will provide the final resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"The Uprising" Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Uprising" Opening Weekend Box Office
<4.5m 61%
4.5-5.5m 22%
5.5-6.5m 14%
6.5-7.5m 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
<4.5m
58%
4.5-5.5m
22%
5.5-6.5m
14%
6.5-7.5m
10%
7.5m+
6%
<4.5m 61%
4.5-5.5m 22%
5.5-6.5m 14%
6.5-7.5m 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
<4.5m
$134 Vol.
58%
4.5-5.5m
$15 Vol.
22%
5.5-6.5m
$15 Vol.
14%
6.5-7.5m
$15 Vol.
10%
7.5m+
$15 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Uprising" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 11 - 13) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Trader sentiment for "The Uprising" opening weekend strongly favors a sub-$4.5 million domestic debut (58% implied probability), with the next bracket (4.5-5.5M) at just 21.5%.**
This positioning stems from the film's mixed-to-mediocre critical reception, with Rotten Tomatoes scores hovering around 50-54% shortly before release. Reviewers have highlighted a lack of inspired direction from Paul Greengrass, generic storytelling in the 1381 Peasants' Revolt narrative, and a disappointing finale, despite praise for Andrew Garfield's lead performance.
As an R-rated historical drama from Focus Features without major IP or franchise backing, the September 10/11 wide release faces typical challenges in a quiet late-summer window, where broad audience interest often lags behind awards-season or blockbuster fare. Pre-release tracking appears subdued, with limited evidence of strong presales, social buzz, or breakout marketing momentum to push it higher.
The market's heavy weighting toward the lowest outcome reflects trader consensus on these headwinds, though an unexpected word-of-mouth surge or strong Garfield-driven turnout could still shift results within the tighter upper brackets. The 3-day weekend (September 11-13) will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Uprising" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 11 - 13) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volume
$194End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Uprising" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 11 - 13) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Trader sentiment for "The Uprising" opening weekend strongly favors a sub-$4.5 million domestic debut (58% implied probability), with the next bracket (4.5-5.5M) at just 21.5%.**
This positioning stems from the film's mixed-to-mediocre critical reception, with Rotten Tomatoes scores hovering around 50-54% shortly before release. Reviewers have highlighted a lack of inspired direction from Paul Greengrass, generic storytelling in the 1381 Peasants' Revolt narrative, and a disappointing finale, despite praise for Andrew Garfield's lead performance.
As an R-rated historical drama from Focus Features without major IP or franchise backing, the September 10/11 wide release faces typical challenges in a quiet late-summer window, where broad audience interest often lags behind awards-season or blockbuster fare. Pre-release tracking appears subdued, with limited evidence of strong presales, social buzz, or breakout marketing momentum to push it higher.
The market's heavy weighting toward the lowest outcome reflects trader consensus on these headwinds, though an unexpected word-of-mouth surge or strong Garfield-driven turnout could still shift results within the tighter upper brackets. The 3-day weekend (September 11-13) will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Uprising" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 11 - 13) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$194End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for "The Uprising" opening weekend strongly favors a sub-$4.5 million domestic debut (58% implied probability), with the next bracket (4.5-5.5M) at just 21.5%.** This positioning stems from the film's mixed-to-mediocre critical reception, with Rotten Tomatoes scores hovering around 50-54% shortly before release. Reviewers have highlighted a lack of inspired direction from Paul Greengrass, generic storytelling in the 1381 Peasants' Revolt narrative, and a disappointing finale, despite praise for Andrew Garfield's lead performance. As an R-rated historical drama from Focus Features without major IP or franchise backing, the September 10/11 wide release faces typical challenges in a quiet late-summer window, where broad audience interest often lags behind awards-season or blockbuster fare. Pre-release tracking appears subdued, with limited evidence of strong presales, social buzz, or breakout marketing momentum to push it higher. The market's heavy weighting toward the lowest outcome reflects trader consensus on these headwinds, though an unexpected word-of-mouth surge or strong Garfield-driven turnout could still shift results within the tighter upper brackets. The 3-day weekend (September 11-13) will provide the final resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions