Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations underpins the 84% trader consensus against a peace deal before 2027. Formal talks, including trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026, yielded only prisoner exchanges amid persistent disputes over territorial concessions in Donbas, Ukrainian security guarantees, and NATO alignment. The Kremlin has stated there is no immediate prospect of resuming substantive talks, with President Putin rejecting direct meetings with President Zelenskyy absent major Ukrainian concessions. Recent US-mediated proposals from Kyiv in August 2026 have not prompted Russian engagement, as Moscow maintains maximalist demands while battlefield dynamics and European initiatives show limited momentum for rapid resolution within the remaining months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16% chance
$2,557,337 Vol.
$2,557,337 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
$2,557,337 Vol.
$2,557,337 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations underpins the 84% trader consensus against a peace deal before 2027. Formal talks, including trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026, yielded only prisoner exchanges amid persistent disputes over territorial concessions in Donbas, Ukrainian security guarantees, and NATO alignment. The Kremlin has stated there is no immediate prospect of resuming substantive talks, with President Putin rejecting direct meetings with President Zelenskyy absent major Ukrainian concessions. Recent US-mediated proposals from Kyiv in August 2026 have not prompted Russian engagement, as Moscow maintains maximalist demands while battlefield dynamics and European initiatives show limited momentum for rapid resolution within the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,557,337End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations underpins the 84% trader consensus against a peace deal before 2027. Formal talks, including trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026, yielded only prisoner exchanges amid persistent disputes over territorial concessions in Donbas, Ukrainian security guarantees, and NATO alignment. The Kremlin has stated there is no immediate prospect of resuming substantive talks, with President Putin rejecting direct meetings with President Zelenskyy absent major Ukrainian concessions. Recent US-mediated proposals from Kyiv in August 2026 have not prompted Russian engagement, as Moscow maintains maximalist demands while battlefield dynamics and European initiatives show limited momentum for rapid resolution within the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,557,337End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations underpins the 84% trader consensus against a peace deal before 2027. Formal talks, including trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026, yielded only prisoner exchanges amid persistent disputes over territorial concessions in Donbas, Ukrainian security guarantees, and NATO alignment. The Kremlin has stated there is no immediate prospect of resuming substantive talks, with President Putin rejecting direct meetings with President Zelenskyy absent major Ukrainian concessions. Recent US-mediated proposals from Kyiv in August 2026 have not prompted Russian engagement, as Moscow maintains maximalist demands while battlefield dynamics and European initiatives show limited momentum for rapid resolution within the remaining months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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