Recent easing in U.S. inflation to 3.5% in June, driven by lower energy costs after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, alongside a July jobs report showing a 23,000 payroll decline, has shaped expectations for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading due August 14. July’s final index rose to 55.2, its highest since February, reflecting broad gains across demographics and tempered one-year inflation expectations at 4.2%. Traders assign the greatest implied probability (47.5%) to a 52.0–54.9 outcome, with 36.5% on 55.0–57.9, consistent with sentiment remaining below year-ago levels amid persistent price concerns. Weakening labor demand and moderating price pressures represent the key near-term swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated52.0–54.9 60%
55.0–57.9 34%
49.0–51.9 15%
<49.0 10.1%
$10,733 Vol.
$10,733 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
<49.0
6%
49.0–51.9
15%
52.0–54.9
60%
55.0–57.9
33%
58.0–60.9
6%
61.0–63.9
5%
64.0+
1%
52.0–54.9 60%
55.0–57.9 34%
49.0–51.9 15%
<49.0 10.1%
$10,733 Vol.
$10,733 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
<49.0
$247 Vol.
6%
49.0–51.9
$306 Vol.
15%
52.0–54.9
$7,927 Vol.
60%
55.0–57.9
$1,250 Vol.
33%
58.0–60.9
$621 Vol.
6%
61.0–63.9
$163 Vol.
5%
64.0+
$219 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent easing in U.S. inflation to 3.5% in June, driven by lower energy costs after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, alongside a July jobs report showing a 23,000 payroll decline, has shaped expectations for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading due August 14. July’s final index rose to 55.2, its highest since February, reflecting broad gains across demographics and tempered one-year inflation expectations at 4.2%. Traders assign the greatest implied probability (47.5%) to a 52.0–54.9 outcome, with 36.5% on 55.0–57.9, consistent with sentiment remaining below year-ago levels amid persistent price concerns. Weakening labor demand and moderating price pressures represent the key near-term swing factors.
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Volume
$10,733End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent easing in U.S. inflation to 3.5% in June, driven by lower energy costs after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, alongside a July jobs report showing a 23,000 payroll decline, has shaped expectations for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading due August 14. July’s final index rose to 55.2, its highest since February, reflecting broad gains across demographics and tempered one-year inflation expectations at 4.2%. Traders assign the greatest implied probability (47.5%) to a 52.0–54.9 outcome, with 36.5% on 55.0–57.9, consistent with sentiment remaining below year-ago levels amid persistent price concerns. Weakening labor demand and moderating price pressures represent the key near-term swing factors.
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$10,733End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent easing in U.S. inflation to 3.5% in June, driven by lower energy costs after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, alongside a July jobs report showing a 23,000 payroll decline, has shaped expectations for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading due August 14. July’s final index rose to 55.2, its highest since February, reflecting broad gains across demographics and tempered one-year inflation expectations at 4.2%. Traders assign the greatest implied probability (47.5%) to a 52.0–54.9 outcome, with 36.5% on 55.0–57.9, consistent with sentiment remaining below year-ago levels amid persistent price concerns. Weakening labor demand and moderating price pressures represent the key near-term swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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