Persistent drought across major cattle-producing regions in the southern Plains, Texas, Oklahoma, and parts of the West has driven 60% of U.S. cattle inventory into drought-affected areas as of the September 1, 2026, U.S. Drought Monitor assessment, aligning with the market's dominant 99.5% implied probability for 60% or more. Official calculations from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's Ag in Drought tracker, integrating USDM categories with NASS cattle distribution data, reflect expanded moderate to exceptional drought coverage amid ongoing heat, reduced forage, and below-average precipitation. This exceeds historical baselines for early September and follows months of deteriorating pasture conditions reported by USDA. A rapid, widespread rainfall event altering the final weekly map before resolution could theoretically shift the outcome downward, though current model consensus and observational data make such a reversal unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)
What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)
60% or more 99.5%
Under 40% <1%
40% to 49% <1%
50% to 59% <1%
$13,327 Vol.
$13,327 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
Under 40%
No
40% to 49%
No
50% to 59%
No
60% or more
Yes
60% or more 99.5%
Under 40% <1%
40% to 49% <1%
50% to 59% <1%
$13,327 Vol.
$13,327 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
Under 40%
$1,490 Vol.
No
40% to 49%
$1,008 Vol.
No
50% to 59%
$5,310 Vol.
No
60% or more
$5,519 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.Persistent drought across major cattle-producing regions in the southern Plains, Texas, Oklahoma, and parts of the West has driven 60% of U.S. cattle inventory into drought-affected areas as of the September 1, 2026, U.S. Drought Monitor assessment, aligning with the market's dominant 99.5% implied probability for 60% or more. Official calculations from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's Ag in Drought tracker, integrating USDM categories with NASS cattle distribution data, reflect expanded moderate to exceptional drought coverage amid ongoing heat, reduced forage, and below-average precipitation. This exceeds historical baselines for early September and follows months of deteriorating pasture conditions reported by USDA. A rapid, widespread rainfall event altering the final weekly map before resolution could theoretically shift the outcome downward, though current model consensus and observational data make such a reversal unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$13,327End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.Persistent drought across major cattle-producing regions in the southern Plains, Texas, Oklahoma, and parts of the West has driven 60% of U.S. cattle inventory into drought-affected areas as of the September 1, 2026, U.S. Drought Monitor assessment, aligning with the market's dominant 99.5% implied probability for 60% or more. Official calculations from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's Ag in Drought tracker, integrating USDM categories with NASS cattle distribution data, reflect expanded moderate to exceptional drought coverage amid ongoing heat, reduced forage, and below-average precipitation. This exceeds historical baselines for early September and follows months of deteriorating pasture conditions reported by USDA. A rapid, widespread rainfall event altering the final weekly map before resolution could theoretically shift the outcome downward, though current model consensus and observational data make such a reversal unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
Volume
$13,327End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Persistent drought across major cattle-producing regions in the southern Plains, Texas, Oklahoma, and parts of the West has driven 60% of U.S. cattle inventory into drought-affected areas as of the September 1, 2026, U.S. Drought Monitor assessment, aligning with the market's dominant 99.5% implied probability for 60% or more. Official calculations from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's Ag in Drought tracker, integrating USDM categories with NASS cattle distribution data, reflect expanded moderate to exceptional drought coverage amid ongoing heat, reduced forage, and below-average precipitation. This exceeds historical baselines for early September and follows months of deteriorating pasture conditions reported by USDA. A rapid, widespread rainfall event altering the final weekly map before resolution could theoretically shift the outcome downward, though current model consensus and observational data make such a reversal unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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