**US policy continues to prioritize free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz under international law, keeping trader-implied odds low for any US collection of transit or protection fees by December 31, 2026.** Following the mid-2026 US-Iran ceasefire framework and 60-day toll-free period, Iran and Oman advanced proposals for service fees or joint administration, which the United States rejected as inconsistent with transit passage rights. President Trump briefly proposed US reimbursement at 20% of cargo value in July amid renewed tensions and blockade measures, but shifted emphasis toward Gulf investment deals. Secretary of State Rubio and other officials have repeatedly affirmed opposition to monetizing the waterway, citing legal precedents and pre-conflict norms. No formal US charging mechanism has been implemented, and structural barriers including diplomatic negotiations and maritime law limit near-term prospects for resolution in the affirmative.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$983,543 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
6%
$983,543 Vol.
December 31
$115,239 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.**US policy continues to prioritize free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz under international law, keeping trader-implied odds low for any US collection of transit or protection fees by December 31, 2026.**
Following the mid-2026 US-Iran ceasefire framework and 60-day toll-free period, Iran and Oman advanced proposals for service fees or joint administration, which the United States rejected as inconsistent with transit passage rights. President Trump briefly proposed US reimbursement at 20% of cargo value in July amid renewed tensions and blockade measures, but shifted emphasis toward Gulf investment deals. Secretary of State Rubio and other officials have repeatedly affirmed opposition to monetizing the waterway, citing legal precedents and pre-conflict norms. No formal US charging mechanism has been implemented, and structural barriers including diplomatic negotiations and maritime law limit near-term prospects for resolution in the affirmative.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$983,543End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.**US policy continues to prioritize free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz under international law, keeping trader-implied odds low for any US collection of transit or protection fees by December 31, 2026.**
Following the mid-2026 US-Iran ceasefire framework and 60-day toll-free period, Iran and Oman advanced proposals for service fees or joint administration, which the United States rejected as inconsistent with transit passage rights. President Trump briefly proposed US reimbursement at 20% of cargo value in July amid renewed tensions and blockade measures, but shifted emphasis toward Gulf investment deals. Secretary of State Rubio and other officials have repeatedly affirmed opposition to monetizing the waterway, citing legal precedents and pre-conflict norms. No formal US charging mechanism has been implemented, and structural barriers including diplomatic negotiations and maritime law limit near-term prospects for resolution in the affirmative.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$983,543End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US policy continues to prioritize free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz under international law, keeping trader-implied odds low for any US collection of transit or protection fees by December 31, 2026.** Following the mid-2026 US-Iran ceasefire framework and 60-day toll-free period, Iran and Oman advanced proposals for service fees or joint administration, which the United States rejected as inconsistent with transit passage rights. President Trump briefly proposed US reimbursement at 20% of cargo value in July amid renewed tensions and blockade measures, but shifted emphasis toward Gulf investment deals. Secretary of State Rubio and other officials have repeatedly affirmed opposition to monetizing the waterway, citing legal precedents and pre-conflict norms. No formal US charging mechanism has been implemented, and structural barriers including diplomatic negotiations and maritime law limit near-term prospects for resolution in the affirmative.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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