**The US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026 (April–June) was shaped primarily by the 10% Section 122 global surcharge imposed after the Supreme Court invalidated broader IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, layered on top of existing Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, copper, and derivatives.** This temporary measure, effective from late February through its scheduled July 24 expiration, produced reported quarterly averages around 7–7.5% in available estimates, down from higher 2025 peaks but well above the pre-2025 baseline near 2%. Section 232 expansions, including 50% rates on many metal products and adjustments to derivative coverage, remained key contributors alongside any lingering or modified Section 301 actions. Import shifts, exemptions, and collection timing influenced the customs-duties-to-import-value ratio used for the effective rate. As Q2 data finalizes, attention centers on official releases from customs and trade statistics, with the immediate post-quarter transition to new 10–12.5% Section 301 duties on dozens of partners (effective July 24) and additional targeted measures, such as 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods, setting the stage for later quarters. These policy mechanics and legal timelines define the range of outcomes traders assess for the Q2 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Aug 26, 2026
5%+
91%
6%+
87%
7%+
52%
8%+
61%
9%+
29%
10%+
18%
$3,674 Vol.
5%+
$26 Vol.
91%
6%+
$6 Vol.
87%
7%+
$1,364 Vol.
52%
8%+
$884 Vol.
61%
9%+
$666 Vol.
29%
10%+
$728 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.
In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error).
The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
**The US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026 (April–June) was shaped primarily by the 10% Section 122 global surcharge imposed after the Supreme Court invalidated broader IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, layered on top of existing Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, copper, and derivatives.** This temporary measure, effective from late February through its scheduled July 24 expiration, produced reported quarterly averages around 7–7.5% in available estimates, down from higher 2025 peaks but well above the pre-2025 baseline near 2%.
Section 232 expansions, including 50% rates on many metal products and adjustments to derivative coverage, remained key contributors alongside any lingering or modified Section 301 actions. Import shifts, exemptions, and collection timing influenced the customs-duties-to-import-value ratio used for the effective rate.
As Q2 data finalizes, attention centers on official releases from customs and trade statistics, with the immediate post-quarter transition to new 10–12.5% Section 301 duties on dozens of partners (effective July 24) and additional targeted measures, such as 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods, setting the stage for later quarters. These policy mechanics and legal timelines define the range of outcomes traders assess for the Q2 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.
In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error).
The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.
In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error).
The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$3,674End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.
In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error).
The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
**The US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026 (April–June) was shaped primarily by the 10% Section 122 global surcharge imposed after the Supreme Court invalidated broader IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, layered on top of existing Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, copper, and derivatives.** This temporary measure, effective from late February through its scheduled July 24 expiration, produced reported quarterly averages around 7–7.5% in available estimates, down from higher 2025 peaks but well above the pre-2025 baseline near 2%.
Section 232 expansions, including 50% rates on many metal products and adjustments to derivative coverage, remained key contributors alongside any lingering or modified Section 301 actions. Import shifts, exemptions, and collection timing influenced the customs-duties-to-import-value ratio used for the effective rate.
As Q2 data finalizes, attention centers on official releases from customs and trade statistics, with the immediate post-quarter transition to new 10–12.5% Section 301 duties on dozens of partners (effective July 24) and additional targeted measures, such as 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods, setting the stage for later quarters. These policy mechanics and legal timelines define the range of outcomes traders assess for the Q2 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.
In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error).
The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.
In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error).
The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Volume
$3,674End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026 (April–June) was shaped primarily by the 10% Section 122 global surcharge imposed after the Supreme Court invalidated broader IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, layered on top of existing Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, copper, and derivatives.** This temporary measure, effective from late February through its scheduled July 24 expiration, produced reported quarterly averages around 7–7.5% in available estimates, down from higher 2025 peaks but well above the pre-2025 baseline near 2%. Section 232 expansions, including 50% rates on many metal products and adjustments to derivative coverage, remained key contributors alongside any lingering or modified Section 301 actions. Import shifts, exemptions, and collection timing influenced the customs-duties-to-import-value ratio used for the effective rate. As Q2 data finalizes, attention centers on official releases from customs and trade statistics, with the immediate post-quarter transition to new 10–12.5% Section 301 duties on dozens of partners (effective July 24) and additional targeted measures, such as 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods, setting the stage for later quarters. These policy mechanics and legal timelines define the range of outcomes traders assess for the Q2 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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