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icon for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
Economy·Oil

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?

icon for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
Economy·Oil

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?

Ended: Aug 28

Oct 7

Ended: Aug 28

Oct 7

$79,064 Vol.

Aug 27, 2026
Polymarket

$79,064 Vol.

Polymarket

300M

$6,295 Vol.

Yes

285M

$49,831 Vol.

No

270M

$11,034 Vol.

No

255M

$6,201 Vol.

No

240M

$3,620 Vol.

No

225M

$2,083 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.Recent EIA data show U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks declining steadily amid ongoing releases tied to Middle East supply disruptions, with the reserve falling to 286.6 million barrels for the week ending August 28, 2026, from 289.7 million the prior week and well below year-ago levels near 404 million. Commercial crude inventories (excluding SPR) also drew 4.45 million barrels that week to 424.5 million, though they remain near five-year averages. Refinery crude runs near 98% utilization, elevated imports, and seasonal demand patterns have supported the draw trajectory, while production hovered around 13.8 million barrels per day. The next weekly EIA report, due shortly after the resolution window, will provide final confirmation for any threshold-based outcomes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.

If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.

Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Volume
$79,064
End Date
Aug 28, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 7:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.Recent EIA data show U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks declining steadily amid ongoing releases tied to Middle East supply disruptions, with the reserve falling to 286.6 million barrels for the week ending August 28, 2026, from 289.7 million the prior week and well below year-ago levels near 404 million. Commercial crude inventories (excluding SPR) also drew 4.45 million barrels that week to 424.5 million, though they remain near five-year averages. Refinery crude runs near 98% utilization, elevated imports, and seasonal demand patterns have supported the draw trajectory, while production hovered around 13.8 million barrels per day. The next weekly EIA report, due shortly after the resolution window, will provide final confirmation for any threshold-based outcomes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.

If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.

Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Volume
$79,064
End Date
Aug 28, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 7:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "300M" at 100%, followed by "285M" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?" has generated $79.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?" is "300M" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "285M" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.