Bipartisan Senate negotiations on an AI safety bill advanced in mid-September 2026, with Commerce Committee Chair Ted Cruz and Sens. Amy Klobuchar and John Thune citing progress on provisions addressing catastrophic risks and model accountability. However, the House adjourned for midterm recess, leaving minimal floor time before year-end, while President Trump publicly dismissed AI risks as overstated and opposed new mandates. A narrow “kill switch” proposal failed via unanimous consent objection, underscoring procedural and partisan barriers. Multiple targeted bills cleared House committees earlier in the year, yet comprehensive legislation has stalled amid lobbying, liability disputes, and state preemption disagreements. Traders price an 87.5% chance of no enactment before 2027, reflecting the short legislative window and lack of consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
13% chance
$124,739 Vol.
$124,739 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
13% chance
$124,739 Vol.
$124,739 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan Senate negotiations on an AI safety bill advanced in mid-September 2026, with Commerce Committee Chair Ted Cruz and Sens. Amy Klobuchar and John Thune citing progress on provisions addressing catastrophic risks and model accountability. However, the House adjourned for midterm recess, leaving minimal floor time before year-end, while President Trump publicly dismissed AI risks as overstated and opposed new mandates. A narrow “kill switch” proposal failed via unanimous consent objection, underscoring procedural and partisan barriers. Multiple targeted bills cleared House committees earlier in the year, yet comprehensive legislation has stalled amid lobbying, liability disputes, and state preemption disagreements. Traders price an 87.5% chance of no enactment before 2027, reflecting the short legislative window and lack of consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$124,739End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan Senate negotiations on an AI safety bill advanced in mid-September 2026, with Commerce Committee Chair Ted Cruz and Sens. Amy Klobuchar and John Thune citing progress on provisions addressing catastrophic risks and model accountability. However, the House adjourned for midterm recess, leaving minimal floor time before year-end, while President Trump publicly dismissed AI risks as overstated and opposed new mandates. A narrow “kill switch” proposal failed via unanimous consent objection, underscoring procedural and partisan barriers. Multiple targeted bills cleared House committees earlier in the year, yet comprehensive legislation has stalled amid lobbying, liability disputes, and state preemption disagreements. Traders price an 87.5% chance of no enactment before 2027, reflecting the short legislative window and lack of consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$124,739End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan Senate negotiations on an AI safety bill advanced in mid-September 2026, with Commerce Committee Chair Ted Cruz and Sens. Amy Klobuchar and John Thune citing progress on provisions addressing catastrophic risks and model accountability. However, the House adjourned for midterm recess, leaving minimal floor time before year-end, while President Trump publicly dismissed AI risks as overstated and opposed new mandates. A narrow “kill switch” proposal failed via unanimous consent objection, underscoring procedural and partisan barriers. Multiple targeted bills cleared House committees earlier in the year, yet comprehensive legislation has stalled amid lobbying, liability disputes, and state preemption disagreements. Traders price an 87.5% chance of no enactment before 2027, reflecting the short legislative window and lack of consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions