Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below Q1's 2.1% and consensus expectations, has tempered near-term momentum while New York Fed nowcasts place Q3 2026 around 2.1–2.2% with wide intervals. Professional forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed project a rebound to 2.5% for the current quarter amid resilient consumer spending, shifting toward business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.4%. Sticky core inflation above the Fed's 2% target has kept the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range, supporting trader-implied odds clustered in the 2.0–3.0% range. The closely matched leading outcomes reflect uncertainty over trade frictions, potential data revisions, and whether investment-led growth can offset affordability pressures before Q3 data finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 33%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.0–1.5% 7.6%
$18,694 Vol.
$18,694 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
8%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
21%
≥3.0%
33%
≥3.0% 33%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.0–1.5% 7.6%
$18,694 Vol.
$18,694 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$760 Vol.
4%
0.5–1.0%
$470 Vol.
4%
1.0–1.5%
$546 Vol.
8%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Vol.
8%
2.0–2.5%
$1,743 Vol.
25%
2.5–3.0%
$3,182 Vol.
21%
≥3.0%
$11,393 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below Q1's 2.1% and consensus expectations, has tempered near-term momentum while New York Fed nowcasts place Q3 2026 around 2.1–2.2% with wide intervals. Professional forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed project a rebound to 2.5% for the current quarter amid resilient consumer spending, shifting toward business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.4%. Sticky core inflation above the Fed's 2% target has kept the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range, supporting trader-implied odds clustered in the 2.0–3.0% range. The closely matched leading outcomes reflect uncertainty over trade frictions, potential data revisions, and whether investment-led growth can offset affordability pressures before Q3 data finalize.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$18,694End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below Q1's 2.1% and consensus expectations, has tempered near-term momentum while New York Fed nowcasts place Q3 2026 around 2.1–2.2% with wide intervals. Professional forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed project a rebound to 2.5% for the current quarter amid resilient consumer spending, shifting toward business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.4%. Sticky core inflation above the Fed's 2% target has kept the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range, supporting trader-implied odds clustered in the 2.0–3.0% range. The closely matched leading outcomes reflect uncertainty over trade frictions, potential data revisions, and whether investment-led growth can offset affordability pressures before Q3 data finalize.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$18,694End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below Q1's 2.1% and consensus expectations, has tempered near-term momentum while New York Fed nowcasts place Q3 2026 around 2.1–2.2% with wide intervals. Professional forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed project a rebound to 2.5% for the current quarter amid resilient consumer spending, shifting toward business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.4%. Sticky core inflation above the Fed's 2% target has kept the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range, supporting trader-implied odds clustered in the 2.0–3.0% range. The closely matched leading outcomes reflect uncertainty over trade frictions, potential data revisions, and whether investment-led growth can offset affordability pressures before Q3 data finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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