USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory data showed Episode 53 of the Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption at Kīlauea beginning at 3:45 p.m. HST on August 12 after sustained precursory overflows and spatter from the north vent transitioned to high fountaining, coinciding with a clear switch to deflationary tilt. This matched the typical inflation-deflation cycle and historical timing patterns of the ongoing episodic activity, where steady summit reinflation reliably precedes new episodes. Trader consensus at near-certain probability for the August 11-12 window reflected confidence in these real-time geophysical indicators and model consensus. A realistic challenge would require an atypical pause or renewed inflation that delayed the onset beyond the observed vent behavior and tilt signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
When will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
Aug 11-12 100.0%
Aug 8 or earlier <1%
Aug 9-10 <1%
Aug 13 or later <1%
$9,296 Vol.
$9,296 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
No
Aug 9-10
No
Aug 11-12
Yes
Aug 13 or later
No
Aug 11-12 100.0%
Aug 8 or earlier <1%
Aug 9-10 <1%
Aug 13 or later <1%
$9,296 Vol.
$9,296 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
$1,341 Vol.
No
Aug 9-10
$2,167 Vol.
No
Aug 11-12
$3,471 Vol.
Yes
Aug 13 or later
$2,317 Vol.
No
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory data showed Episode 53 of the Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption at Kīlauea beginning at 3:45 p.m. HST on August 12 after sustained precursory overflows and spatter from the north vent transitioned to high fountaining, coinciding with a clear switch to deflationary tilt. This matched the typical inflation-deflation cycle and historical timing patterns of the ongoing episodic activity, where steady summit reinflation reliably precedes new episodes. Trader consensus at near-certain probability for the August 11-12 window reflected confidence in these real-time geophysical indicators and model consensus. A realistic challenge would require an atypical pause or renewed inflation that delayed the onset beyond the observed vent behavior and tilt signals.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$9,296End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory data showed Episode 53 of the Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption at Kīlauea beginning at 3:45 p.m. HST on August 12 after sustained precursory overflows and spatter from the north vent transitioned to high fountaining, coinciding with a clear switch to deflationary tilt. This matched the typical inflation-deflation cycle and historical timing patterns of the ongoing episodic activity, where steady summit reinflation reliably precedes new episodes. Trader consensus at near-certain probability for the August 11-12 window reflected confidence in these real-time geophysical indicators and model consensus. A realistic challenge would require an atypical pause or renewed inflation that delayed the onset beyond the observed vent behavior and tilt signals.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Volume
$9,296End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory data showed Episode 53 of the Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption at Kīlauea beginning at 3:45 p.m. HST on August 12 after sustained precursory overflows and spatter from the north vent transitioned to high fountaining, coinciding with a clear switch to deflationary tilt. This matched the typical inflation-deflation cycle and historical timing patterns of the ongoing episodic activity, where steady summit reinflation reliably precedes new episodes. Trader consensus at near-certain probability for the August 11-12 window reflected confidence in these real-time geophysical indicators and model consensus. A realistic challenge would require an atypical pause or renewed inflation that delayed the onset beyond the observed vent behavior and tilt signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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