Traders have priced OpenAI at a 99% implied probability of posting the second-highest revenue among AI companies for the week of May 11–17, underscoring its entrenched lead in generative AI monetization. This consensus rests on OpenAI’s established cash flows from ChatGPT subscriptions, API usage, and enterprise licensing, which have reliably surpassed those of specialized labs like Anthropic and xAI in recent reporting periods. Google’s broader search and cloud base appears unlikely to overtake in AI-specific revenue during this narrow window. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected surge in reported usage from a rival model or a last-minute accounting adjustment, though both remain low-probability given current adoption patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 99.0%
Google <1%
Anthropic <1%
Z.ai <1%
$28,135 Vol.
$28,135 Vol.
May 17, 2026
OpenAI
99%
1%
Anthropic
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
xAI
<1%
OpenAI 99.0%
Google <1%
Anthropic <1%
Z.ai <1%
$28,135 Vol.
$28,135 Vol.
May 17, 2026
OpenAI
$10,358 Vol.
99%
$1,873 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$2,347 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,087 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$3,581 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,457 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$950 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$4,480 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model family that has the second-highest total estimated inference revenue based on Anera's data published at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family for the specified week.
The week’s values will be determined by summing the respective companies' estimated revenue figures for each day within the specified period. If data for all specified days is not released by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. Entries labeled “Other” will not be considered a model family for the purposes of this market. Revisions to published data will be considered only until all relevant data for the specified period has been released.
Model families will be ranked primarily by their total estimated inference revenue over the specified seven-day period, with alphabetical order of model family names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if two model families are exactly tied, “Anthropic” would be ranked ahead of “OpenAI”). This market will resolve based on the model family that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is data published by Anera Intelligence at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family. If the relevant data for the full period is not available by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. If this resolution source is unavailable, this market will remain open until the data becomes available and will resolve based on the first subsequent check.Traders have priced OpenAI at a 99% implied probability of posting the second-highest revenue among AI companies for the week of May 11–17, underscoring its entrenched lead in generative AI monetization. This consensus rests on OpenAI’s established cash flows from ChatGPT subscriptions, API usage, and enterprise licensing, which have reliably surpassed those of specialized labs like Anthropic and xAI in recent reporting periods. Google’s broader search and cloud base appears unlikely to overtake in AI-specific revenue during this narrow window. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected surge in reported usage from a rival model or a last-minute accounting adjustment, though both remain low-probability given current adoption patterns.
This market will resolve according to the model family that has the second-highest total estimated inference revenue based on Anera's data published at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family for the specified week.
The week’s values will be determined by summing the respective companies' estimated revenue figures for each day within the specified period. If data for all specified days is not released by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. Entries labeled “Other” will not be considered a model family for the purposes of this market. Revisions to published data will be considered only until all relevant data for the specified period has been released.
Model families will be ranked primarily by their total estimated inference revenue over the specified seven-day period, with alphabetical order of model family names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if two model families are exactly tied, “Anthropic” would be ranked ahead of “OpenAI”). This market will resolve based on the model family that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is data published by Anera Intelligence at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family. If the relevant data for the full period is not available by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. If this resolution source is unavailable, this market will remain open until the data becomes available and will resolve based on the first subsequent check.
The week’s values will be determined by summing the respective companies' estimated revenue figures for each day within the specified period. If data for all specified days is not released by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. Entries labeled “Other” will not be considered a model family for the purposes of this market. Revisions to published data will be considered only until all relevant data for the specified period has been released.
Model families will be ranked primarily by their total estimated inference revenue over the specified seven-day period, with alphabetical order of model family names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if two model families are exactly tied, “Anthropic” would be ranked ahead of “OpenAI”). This market will resolve based on the model family that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is data published by Anera Intelligence at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family. If the relevant data for the full period is not available by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. If this resolution source is unavailable, this market will remain open until the data becomes available and will resolve based on the first subsequent check.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$28,135End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model family that has the second-highest total estimated inference revenue based on Anera's data published at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family for the specified week.
The week’s values will be determined by summing the respective companies' estimated revenue figures for each day within the specified period. If data for all specified days is not released by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. Entries labeled “Other” will not be considered a model family for the purposes of this market. Revisions to published data will be considered only until all relevant data for the specified period has been released.
Model families will be ranked primarily by their total estimated inference revenue over the specified seven-day period, with alphabetical order of model family names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if two model families are exactly tied, “Anthropic” would be ranked ahead of “OpenAI”). This market will resolve based on the model family that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is data published by Anera Intelligence at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family. If the relevant data for the full period is not available by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. If this resolution source is unavailable, this market will remain open until the data becomes available and will resolve based on the first subsequent check.Traders have priced OpenAI at a 99% implied probability of posting the second-highest revenue among AI companies for the week of May 11–17, underscoring its entrenched lead in generative AI monetization. This consensus rests on OpenAI’s established cash flows from ChatGPT subscriptions, API usage, and enterprise licensing, which have reliably surpassed those of specialized labs like Anthropic and xAI in recent reporting periods. Google’s broader search and cloud base appears unlikely to overtake in AI-specific revenue during this narrow window. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected surge in reported usage from a rival model or a last-minute accounting adjustment, though both remain low-probability given current adoption patterns.
This market will resolve according to the model family that has the second-highest total estimated inference revenue based on Anera's data published at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family for the specified week.
The week’s values will be determined by summing the respective companies' estimated revenue figures for each day within the specified period. If data for all specified days is not released by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. Entries labeled “Other” will not be considered a model family for the purposes of this market. Revisions to published data will be considered only until all relevant data for the specified period has been released.
Model families will be ranked primarily by their total estimated inference revenue over the specified seven-day period, with alphabetical order of model family names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if two model families are exactly tied, “Anthropic” would be ranked ahead of “OpenAI”). This market will resolve based on the model family that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is data published by Anera Intelligence at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family. If the relevant data for the full period is not available by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. If this resolution source is unavailable, this market will remain open until the data becomes available and will resolve based on the first subsequent check.
The week’s values will be determined by summing the respective companies' estimated revenue figures for each day within the specified period. If data for all specified days is not released by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. Entries labeled “Other” will not be considered a model family for the purposes of this market. Revisions to published data will be considered only until all relevant data for the specified period has been released.
Model families will be ranked primarily by their total estimated inference revenue over the specified seven-day period, with alphabetical order of model family names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if two model families are exactly tied, “Anthropic” would be ranked ahead of “OpenAI”). This market will resolve based on the model family that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is data published by Anera Intelligence at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family. If the relevant data for the full period is not available by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. If this resolution source is unavailable, this market will remain open until the data becomes available and will resolve based on the first subsequent check.
Volume
$28,135End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have priced OpenAI at a 99% implied probability of posting the second-highest revenue among AI companies for the week of May 11–17, underscoring its entrenched lead in generative AI monetization. This consensus rests on OpenAI’s established cash flows from ChatGPT subscriptions, API usage, and enterprise licensing, which have reliably surpassed those of specialized labs like Anthropic and xAI in recent reporting periods. Google’s broader search and cloud base appears unlikely to overtake in AI-specific revenue during this narrow window. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected surge in reported usage from a rival model or a last-minute accounting adjustment, though both remain low-probability given current adoption patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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