Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April, followed by May updates adding stronger multi-agent orchestration and background session controls, has driven trader consensus toward the company for the top large language model at month-end. These releases delivered measurable gains on software-engineering benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and extended autonomous-task handling, areas that align closely with the market’s style-control evaluation criteria. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to post competitive results on reasoning suites like GPQA Diamond, yet lacks the same recent agentic tooling momentum. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants remain strong on math benchmarks but trail in sustained coding and prose-quality metrics that traders appear to weigh heavily here. With resolution only days away, any last-minute benchmark disclosures or capability demonstrations could still shift positioning, though current momentum strongly favors Anthropic’s demonstrated edge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 90%
Google 7%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$624,561 Vol.
$624,561 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
90%
7%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 7%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$624,561 Vol.
$624,561 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$58,980 Vol.
90%
$68,218 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$37,845 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$73,150 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$41,782 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$53,618 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$25,554 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$34,097 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$38,952 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$39,087 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,580 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$25,718 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$29,179 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$29,953 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$32,847 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April, followed by May updates adding stronger multi-agent orchestration and background session controls, has driven trader consensus toward the company for the top large language model at month-end. These releases delivered measurable gains on software-engineering benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and extended autonomous-task handling, areas that align closely with the market’s style-control evaluation criteria. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to post competitive results on reasoning suites like GPQA Diamond, yet lacks the same recent agentic tooling momentum. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants remain strong on math benchmarks but trail in sustained coding and prose-quality metrics that traders appear to weigh heavily here. With resolution only days away, any last-minute benchmark disclosures or capability demonstrations could still shift positioning, though current momentum strongly favors Anthropic’s demonstrated edge.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$624,561End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April, followed by May updates adding stronger multi-agent orchestration and background session controls, has driven trader consensus toward the company for the top large language model at month-end. These releases delivered measurable gains on software-engineering benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and extended autonomous-task handling, areas that align closely with the market’s style-control evaluation criteria. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to post competitive results on reasoning suites like GPQA Diamond, yet lacks the same recent agentic tooling momentum. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants remain strong on math benchmarks but trail in sustained coding and prose-quality metrics that traders appear to weigh heavily here. With resolution only days away, any last-minute benchmark disclosures or capability demonstrations could still shift positioning, though current momentum strongly favors Anthropic’s demonstrated edge.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$624,561End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April, followed by May updates adding stronger multi-agent orchestration and background session controls, has driven trader consensus toward the company for the top large language model at month-end. These releases delivered measurable gains on software-engineering benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and extended autonomous-task handling, areas that align closely with the market’s style-control evaluation criteria. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to post competitive results on reasoning suites like GPQA Diamond, yet lacks the same recent agentic tooling momentum. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants remain strong on math benchmarks but trail in sustained coding and prose-quality metrics that traders appear to weigh heavily here. With resolution only days away, any last-minute benchmark disclosures or capability demonstrations could still shift positioning, though current momentum strongly favors Anthropic’s demonstrated edge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions