Traders have converged on Anthropic as the clear leader for the best AI model by end of May, reflecting its recent Claude large language model updates that delivered measurable gains on key benchmarks for reasoning and safety. These advancements have strengthened the company's competitive edge against other labs in the current development cycle. The tight timeline leaves limited room for major surprises, yet credible new releases or third-party evaluations from Google or OpenAI could still shift outcomes if they demonstrate superior capabilities before the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 91%
Google 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
ByteDance <1%
$9,008,663 Vol.
$9,008,663 Vol.

Anthropic
91%

8%

OpenAI
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
Google 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
ByteDance <1%
$9,008,663 Vol.
$9,008,663 Vol.

Anthropic
91%

8%

OpenAI
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have converged on Anthropic as the clear leader for the best AI model by end of May, reflecting its recent Claude large language model updates that delivered measurable gains on key benchmarks for reasoning and safety. These advancements have strengthened the company's competitive edge against other labs in the current development cycle. The tight timeline leaves limited room for major surprises, yet credible new releases or third-party evaluations from Google or OpenAI could still shift outcomes if they demonstrate superior capabilities before the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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