**Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 domestic opening weekend at 56.5% implied probability, ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 43.5% and a broad field of other titles or “Other” clustered near 50%.** Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claimed the year’s largest debut with its record $360 million launch in late July, leaving December’s Avengers: Doomsday as the clearest candidate to post the next-highest figure. Strong early presales—already exceeding $50 million with more than three months remaining—and tracking in the $260–300 million range reflect sustained MCU franchise momentum and premium-format demand. In contrast, Toy Story 5’s $160 million June opening, The Odyssey’s $124 million bow, and lower-profile releases like Dune: Messiah or The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping sit well behind, with minimal momentum to challenge for second place. The market’s tight spread among many outcomes underscores uncertainty around final 2026 tracking, yet Doomsday’s presale trajectory and holiday positioning remain the dominant drivers of current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 56%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 44%
Toy Story 5 <1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$134,158 Vol.
$134,158 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
56%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
44%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 56%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 44%
Toy Story 5 <1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$134,158 Vol.
$134,158 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
$54,565 Vol.
56%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$66,860 Vol.
44%
Toy Story 5
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$482 Vol.
<1%
Dune: Messiah
$8,291 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 domestic opening weekend at 56.5% implied probability, ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 43.5% and a broad field of other titles or “Other” clustered near 50%.**
Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claimed the year’s largest debut with its record $360 million launch in late July, leaving December’s Avengers: Doomsday as the clearest candidate to post the next-highest figure. Strong early presales—already exceeding $50 million with more than three months remaining—and tracking in the $260–300 million range reflect sustained MCU franchise momentum and premium-format demand.
In contrast, Toy Story 5’s $160 million June opening, The Odyssey’s $124 million bow, and lower-profile releases like Dune: Messiah or The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping sit well behind, with minimal momentum to challenge for second place. The market’s tight spread among many outcomes underscores uncertainty around final 2026 tracking, yet Doomsday’s presale trajectory and holiday positioning remain the dominant drivers of current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Volume
$134,158End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 domestic opening weekend at 56.5% implied probability, ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 43.5% and a broad field of other titles or “Other” clustered near 50%.**
Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claimed the year’s largest debut with its record $360 million launch in late July, leaving December’s Avengers: Doomsday as the clearest candidate to post the next-highest figure. Strong early presales—already exceeding $50 million with more than three months remaining—and tracking in the $260–300 million range reflect sustained MCU franchise momentum and premium-format demand.
In contrast, Toy Story 5’s $160 million June opening, The Odyssey’s $124 million bow, and lower-profile releases like Dune: Messiah or The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping sit well behind, with minimal momentum to challenge for second place. The market’s tight spread among many outcomes underscores uncertainty around final 2026 tracking, yet Doomsday’s presale trajectory and holiday positioning remain the dominant drivers of current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$134,158End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 domestic opening weekend at 56.5% implied probability, ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 43.5% and a broad field of other titles or “Other” clustered near 50%.** Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claimed the year’s largest debut with its record $360 million launch in late July, leaving December’s Avengers: Doomsday as the clearest candidate to post the next-highest figure. Strong early presales—already exceeding $50 million with more than three months remaining—and tracking in the $260–300 million range reflect sustained MCU franchise momentum and premium-format demand. In contrast, Toy Story 5’s $160 million June opening, The Odyssey’s $124 million bow, and lower-profile releases like Dune: Messiah or The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping sit well behind, with minimal momentum to challenge for second place. The market’s tight spread among many outcomes underscores uncertainty around final 2026 tracking, yet Doomsday’s presale trajectory and holiday positioning remain the dominant drivers of current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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