US-Iran diplomacy in 2026 centered on a June 17 memorandum of understanding that launched a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and a broader ceasefire, following earlier rounds mediated by Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar. High-level exchanges, including sessions involving Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, occurred in June but produced no final accord by the mid-August deadline. By late August, the White House stated that no meaningful negotiations were underway and shifted emphasis to economic pressure, while Iran pursued separate discussions with Oman on Hormuz transit and hosted Qatari efforts to revive channels. These stalled dynamics and absence of confirmed direct US-Iran meetings near the August 31 cutoff frame trader assessments of attendance prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$179,103 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Donald Trump
No
Marco Rubio
No
J.D. Vance
No
Jared Kushner
No
Steve Witkoff
No
Pete Hegseth
No
Abbas Araghchi
No
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
No
Mojtaba Khamenei
No
Masoud Pezeshkian
No
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
No
Kazem Gharibabadi
No
Ahmad Vahidi
No
Esmail Qaani
No
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
No
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
No
Ishaq Dar
No
Rafael Grossi
No
Nick Stewart
No
$179,103 Vol.
Donald Trump
$14,129 Vol.
No
Marco Rubio
$8,092 Vol.
No
J.D. Vance
$25,409 Vol.
No
Jared Kushner
$28,640 Vol.
No
Steve Witkoff
$27,627 Vol.
No
Pete Hegseth
$4,790 Vol.
No
Abbas Araghchi
$9,968 Vol.
No
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$13,930 Vol.
No
Mojtaba Khamenei
$8,115 Vol.
No
Masoud Pezeshkian
$8,722 Vol.
No
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$4,182 Vol.
No
Kazem Gharibabadi
$1,972 Vol.
No
Ahmad Vahidi
$9,727 Vol.
No
Esmail Qaani
$4,541 Vol.
No
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$2,304 Vol.
No
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$569 Vol.
No
Ishaq Dar
$3,178 Vol.
No
Rafael Grossi
$1,430 Vol.
No
Nick Stewart
$1,777 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy in 2026 centered on a June 17 memorandum of understanding that launched a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and a broader ceasefire, following earlier rounds mediated by Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar. High-level exchanges, including sessions involving Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, occurred in June but produced no final accord by the mid-August deadline. By late August, the White House stated that no meaningful negotiations were underway and shifted emphasis to economic pressure, while Iran pursued separate discussions with Oman on Hormuz transit and hosted Qatari efforts to revive channels. These stalled dynamics and absence of confirmed direct US-Iran meetings near the August 31 cutoff frame trader assessments of attendance prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$179,103End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy in 2026 centered on a June 17 memorandum of understanding that launched a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and a broader ceasefire, following earlier rounds mediated by Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar. High-level exchanges, including sessions involving Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, occurred in June but produced no final accord by the mid-August deadline. By late August, the White House stated that no meaningful negotiations were underway and shifted emphasis to economic pressure, while Iran pursued separate discussions with Oman on Hormuz transit and hosted Qatari efforts to revive channels. These stalled dynamics and absence of confirmed direct US-Iran meetings near the August 31 cutoff frame trader assessments of attendance prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$179,103End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
US-Iran diplomacy in 2026 centered on a June 17 memorandum of understanding that launched a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and a broader ceasefire, following earlier rounds mediated by Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar. High-level exchanges, including sessions involving Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, occurred in June but produced no final accord by the mid-August deadline. By late August, the White House stated that no meaningful negotiations were underway and shifted emphasis to economic pressure, while Iran pursued separate discussions with Oman on Hormuz transit and hosted Qatari efforts to revive channels. These stalled dynamics and absence of confirmed direct US-Iran meetings near the August 31 cutoff frame trader assessments of attendance prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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