High past turnover in President Trump’s second-term cabinet, including the 2026 departures of officials such as Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Tulsi Gabbard, has shaped trader views, yet recent months show a slower pace of changes with no major new exits reported. This underpins the leading 62% odds on no further departures before 2027. Pete Hegseth faces the next-highest probability amid ongoing congressional scrutiny over Pentagon management and prior Signal chat disclosures, while Susie Wiles contends with general questions around White House staffing stability despite public statements of continuity. Mike Waltz, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Scott Bessent appear in narrower bands due to earlier reassignment patterns, policy alignment pressures, and historical precedent for mid-term adjustments in cabinet roles. Upcoming midterm dynamics and any new performance reviews could still influence outcomes before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNone before 2027 61.9%
Pete Hegseth 8.5%
Susie Wiles 8.2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 5.5%
$69,267 Vol.
$69,267 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
62%
Pete Hegseth
9%
Susie Wiles
8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Mike Waltz
4%
Scott Bessent
4%
Doug Burgum
3%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
J.D. Vance
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Kelly Loeffler
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Lee Zeldin
<1%
None before 2027 61.9%
Pete Hegseth 8.5%
Susie Wiles 8.2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 5.5%
$69,267 Vol.
$69,267 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$27,041 Vol.
62%
Pete Hegseth
$2,535 Vol.
9%
Susie Wiles
$3,930 Vol.
8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$19,359 Vol.
5%
Mike Waltz
$1,000 Vol.
4%
Scott Bessent
$2,976 Vol.
4%
Doug Burgum
$1,125 Vol.
3%
Brooke Rollins
$934 Vol.
2%
Russell T. Vought
$695 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$688 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$730 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$818 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$489 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$888 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$1,094 Vol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$682 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$1,018 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$792 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$961 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$716 Vol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$797 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High past turnover in President Trump’s second-term cabinet, including the 2026 departures of officials such as Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Tulsi Gabbard, has shaped trader views, yet recent months show a slower pace of changes with no major new exits reported. This underpins the leading 62% odds on no further departures before 2027. Pete Hegseth faces the next-highest probability amid ongoing congressional scrutiny over Pentagon management and prior Signal chat disclosures, while Susie Wiles contends with general questions around White House staffing stability despite public statements of continuity. Mike Waltz, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Scott Bessent appear in narrower bands due to earlier reassignment patterns, policy alignment pressures, and historical precedent for mid-term adjustments in cabinet roles. Upcoming midterm dynamics and any new performance reviews could still influence outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$69,267End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High past turnover in President Trump’s second-term cabinet, including the 2026 departures of officials such as Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Tulsi Gabbard, has shaped trader views, yet recent months show a slower pace of changes with no major new exits reported. This underpins the leading 62% odds on no further departures before 2027. Pete Hegseth faces the next-highest probability amid ongoing congressional scrutiny over Pentagon management and prior Signal chat disclosures, while Susie Wiles contends with general questions around White House staffing stability despite public statements of continuity. Mike Waltz, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Scott Bessent appear in narrower bands due to earlier reassignment patterns, policy alignment pressures, and historical precedent for mid-term adjustments in cabinet roles. Upcoming midterm dynamics and any new performance reviews could still influence outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$69,267End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High past turnover in President Trump’s second-term cabinet, including the 2026 departures of officials such as Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Tulsi Gabbard, has shaped trader views, yet recent months show a slower pace of changes with no major new exits reported. This underpins the leading 62% odds on no further departures before 2027. Pete Hegseth faces the next-highest probability amid ongoing congressional scrutiny over Pentagon management and prior Signal chat disclosures, while Susie Wiles contends with general questions around White House staffing stability despite public statements of continuity. Mike Waltz, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Scott Bessent appear in narrower bands due to earlier reassignment patterns, policy alignment pressures, and historical precedent for mid-term adjustments in cabinet roles. Upcoming midterm dynamics and any new performance reviews could still influence outcomes before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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