Recent spring 2026 departures of officials including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer triggered Senate confirmation pressures and temporary speculation about further turnover in the second Trump administration. Since then, the absence of new high-profile exits or confirmed rumors has elevated “none before 2027” as the leading outcome, reflecting trader consensus on short-term stability. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the highest individual probability among remaining members due to his distinct policy profile at HHS and occasional public divergences, while lower odds on figures such as Scott Bessent, Chris Wright, and Pete Hegseth align with fewer visible institutional frictions or scheduled reviews. Scheduled Senate activity and any late-year performance assessments remain the primary variables that could shift these probabilities before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNone before 2027 46.7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 32.5%
Chris Wright 5.0%
Susie Wiles 4.3%
$29,025 Vol.
$29,025 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
47%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
32%
Chris Wright
5%
Susie Wiles
4%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Scott Bessent
6%
Kelly Loeffler
3%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Brooke Rollins
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
None before 2027 46.7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 32.5%
Chris Wright 5.0%
Susie Wiles 4.3%
$29,025 Vol.
$29,025 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$5,291 Vol.
47%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$9,816 Vol.
32%
Chris Wright
$700 Vol.
5%
Susie Wiles
$3,153 Vol.
4%
Pete Hegseth
$929 Vol.
4%
Scott Bessent
$1,103 Vol.
6%
Kelly Loeffler
$746 Vol.
3%
Russell T. Vought
$463 Vol.
2%
Lee Zeldin
$403 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$488 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$727 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$551 Vol.
1%
J.D. Vance
$476 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$341 Vol.
1%
Brooke Rollins
$504 Vol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$468 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$487 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$828 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$507 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$508 Vol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$535 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent spring 2026 departures of officials including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer triggered Senate confirmation pressures and temporary speculation about further turnover in the second Trump administration. Since then, the absence of new high-profile exits or confirmed rumors has elevated “none before 2027” as the leading outcome, reflecting trader consensus on short-term stability. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the highest individual probability among remaining members due to his distinct policy profile at HHS and occasional public divergences, while lower odds on figures such as Scott Bessent, Chris Wright, and Pete Hegseth align with fewer visible institutional frictions or scheduled reviews. Scheduled Senate activity and any late-year performance assessments remain the primary variables that could shift these probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$29,025End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent spring 2026 departures of officials including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer triggered Senate confirmation pressures and temporary speculation about further turnover in the second Trump administration. Since then, the absence of new high-profile exits or confirmed rumors has elevated “none before 2027” as the leading outcome, reflecting trader consensus on short-term stability. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the highest individual probability among remaining members due to his distinct policy profile at HHS and occasional public divergences, while lower odds on figures such as Scott Bessent, Chris Wright, and Pete Hegseth align with fewer visible institutional frictions or scheduled reviews. Scheduled Senate activity and any late-year performance assessments remain the primary variables that could shift these probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$29,025End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent spring 2026 departures of officials including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer triggered Senate confirmation pressures and temporary speculation about further turnover in the second Trump administration. Since then, the absence of new high-profile exits or confirmed rumors has elevated “none before 2027” as the leading outcome, reflecting trader consensus on short-term stability. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the highest individual probability among remaining members due to his distinct policy profile at HHS and occasional public divergences, while lower odds on figures such as Scott Bessent, Chris Wright, and Pete Hegseth align with fewer visible institutional frictions or scheduled reviews. Scheduled Senate activity and any late-year performance assessments remain the primary variables that could shift these probabilities before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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