Lindsey Graham’s sudden death on July 11, 2026, after winning the June Republican primary, has created an open contest for South Carolina’s Senate seat. Governor Henry McMaster will appoint an interim holder until January 2027, while state law triggers a special primary on August 11 to select the GOP nominee for the November general election. With no dominant frontrunner and a broad list of potential candidates including sitting members of Congress and state officials, trader probabilities remain clustered near even odds. The outcome hinges on filing deadlines, McMaster’s appointment decision, and rapid consolidation of party support ahead of the compressed primary timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPamela Evette 37.7%
David Wilkins 18.6%
Russell Fry 9%
Joe Wilson 6.8%
NEW
$11,311 Vol.
NEW
$11,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Pamela Evette
38%
David Wilkins
19%
Russell Fry
9%
Joe Wilson
11%
Ralph Norman
7%
Nancy Mace
6%
Scott Bessent
4%
Alan Wilson
4%
Mick Mulvaney
4%
André Bauer
4%
Paul Dans
3%
Bob Peeler
2%
None Before Midterm Election
2%
Mark Lynch
2%
Sheri Biggs
2%
William Timmons
1%
Pamela Evette 37.7%
David Wilkins 18.6%
Russell Fry 9%
Joe Wilson 6.8%
NEW
$11,311 Vol.
NEW
$11,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Pamela Evette
$7,168 Vol.
38%
David Wilkins
$511 Vol.
19%
Russell Fry
$661 Vol.
9%
Joe Wilson
$604 Vol.
11%
Ralph Norman
$268 Vol.
7%
Nancy Mace
$636 Vol.
6%
Scott Bessent
$36 Vol.
4%
Alan Wilson
$186 Vol.
4%
Mick Mulvaney
$186 Vol.
4%
André Bauer
$186 Vol.
4%
Paul Dans
$186 Vol.
3%
Bob Peeler
$186 Vol.
2%
None Before Midterm Election
$56 Vol.
2%
Mark Lynch
$196 Vol.
2%
Sheri Biggs
$186 Vol.
2%
William Timmons
$56 Vol.
1%
The Governor of South Carolina may appoint a replacement U.S. Senator for South Carolina to serve the rest of Lindsey Graham’s term.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lindsey Graham’s sudden death on July 11, 2026, after winning the June Republican primary, has created an open contest for South Carolina’s Senate seat. Governor Henry McMaster will appoint an interim holder until January 2027, while state law triggers a special primary on August 11 to select the GOP nominee for the November general election. With no dominant frontrunner and a broad list of potential candidates including sitting members of Congress and state officials, trader probabilities remain clustered near even odds. The outcome hinges on filing deadlines, McMaster’s appointment decision, and rapid consolidation of party support ahead of the compressed primary timeline.
The Governor of South Carolina may appoint a replacement U.S. Senator for South Carolina to serve the rest of Lindsey Graham’s term.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 12, 2026, 11:17 AM ET
Volume
$11,311End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 11:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Governor of South Carolina may appoint a replacement U.S. Senator for South Carolina to serve the rest of Lindsey Graham’s term.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lindsey Graham’s sudden death on July 11, 2026, after winning the June Republican primary, has created an open contest for South Carolina’s Senate seat. Governor Henry McMaster will appoint an interim holder until January 2027, while state law triggers a special primary on August 11 to select the GOP nominee for the November general election. With no dominant frontrunner and a broad list of potential candidates including sitting members of Congress and state officials, trader probabilities remain clustered near even odds. The outcome hinges on filing deadlines, McMaster’s appointment decision, and rapid consolidation of party support ahead of the compressed primary timeline.
The Governor of South Carolina may appoint a replacement U.S. Senator for South Carolina to serve the rest of Lindsey Graham’s term.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,311End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 11:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lindsey Graham’s sudden death on July 11, 2026, after winning the June Republican primary, has created an open contest for South Carolina’s Senate seat. Governor Henry McMaster will appoint an interim holder until January 2027, while state law triggers a special primary on August 11 to select the GOP nominee for the November general election. With no dominant frontrunner and a broad list of potential candidates including sitting members of Congress and state officials, trader probabilities remain clustered near even odds. The outcome hinges on filing deadlines, McMaster’s appointment decision, and rapid consolidation of party support ahead of the compressed primary timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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