The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election produced final results showing the AfD at 38.2 percent for 32 of 71 seats, well short of the 36-seat absolute majority threshold. Other parties clearing the 5 percent hurdle took the remainder, with the SPD on 29 seats, the Left and Greens on five each. Traders assign near-certain probability to a No outcome because these seat totals leave no realistic path to a majority under the state's proportional system, reinforced by the consistent refusal of other parties to form coalitions with the AfD. Late-stage developments such as official recounts, certification disputes, or court challenges to seat allocation remain the only conceivable variables that could shift the result before formal resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$17,793 Vol.
$17,793 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
<1% chance
$17,793 Vol.
$17,793 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election produced final results showing the AfD at 38.2 percent for 32 of 71 seats, well short of the 36-seat absolute majority threshold. Other parties clearing the 5 percent hurdle took the remainder, with the SPD on 29 seats, the Left and Greens on five each. Traders assign near-certain probability to a No outcome because these seat totals leave no realistic path to a majority under the state's proportional system, reinforced by the consistent refusal of other parties to form coalitions with the AfD. Late-stage developments such as official recounts, certification disputes, or court challenges to seat allocation remain the only conceivable variables that could shift the result before formal resolution.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ET
Volume
$17,793End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election produced final results showing the AfD at 38.2 percent for 32 of 71 seats, well short of the 36-seat absolute majority threshold. Other parties clearing the 5 percent hurdle took the remainder, with the SPD on 29 seats, the Left and Greens on five each. Traders assign near-certain probability to a No outcome because these seat totals leave no realistic path to a majority under the state's proportional system, reinforced by the consistent refusal of other parties to form coalitions with the AfD. Late-stage developments such as official recounts, certification disputes, or court challenges to seat allocation remain the only conceivable variables that could shift the result before formal resolution.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$17,793End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election produced final results showing the AfD at 38.2 percent for 32 of 71 seats, well short of the 36-seat absolute majority threshold. Other parties clearing the 5 percent hurdle took the remainder, with the SPD on 29 seats, the Left and Greens on five each. Traders assign near-certain probability to a No outcome because these seat totals leave no realistic path to a majority under the state's proportional system, reinforced by the consistent refusal of other parties to form coalitions with the AfD. Late-stage developments such as official recounts, certification disputes, or court challenges to seat allocation remain the only conceivable variables that could shift the result before formal resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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