Apple’s established annual iPhone cadence, with new models launched each September since 2007, underpins the 98.3% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. No official statements or credible supply-chain reports suggest deviation from this pattern, and the typical 12-month development cycle aligns with historical precedent. Traders assign near-certainty because major disruptions—such as severe semiconductor shortages, regulatory export bans, or unforeseen leadership changes—remain rare and have not materialized in recent quarters. While last-minute delays from component issues or certification hurdles are theoretically possible, they have not altered the release-year outcome in over a decade.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated98% chance
$173,131 Vol.
$173,131 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
98% chance
$173,131 Vol.
$173,131 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual iPhone cadence, with new models launched each September since 2007, underpins the 98.3% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. No official statements or credible supply-chain reports suggest deviation from this pattern, and the typical 12-month development cycle aligns with historical precedent. Traders assign near-certainty because major disruptions—such as severe semiconductor shortages, regulatory export bans, or unforeseen leadership changes—remain rare and have not materialized in recent quarters. While last-minute delays from component issues or certification hurdles are theoretically possible, they have not altered the release-year outcome in over a decade.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$173,131End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual iPhone cadence, with new models launched each September since 2007, underpins the 98.3% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. No official statements or credible supply-chain reports suggest deviation from this pattern, and the typical 12-month development cycle aligns with historical precedent. Traders assign near-certainty because major disruptions—such as severe semiconductor shortages, regulatory export bans, or unforeseen leadership changes—remain rare and have not materialized in recent quarters. While last-minute delays from component issues or certification hurdles are theoretically possible, they have not altered the release-year outcome in over a decade.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$173,131End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual iPhone cadence, with new models launched each September since 2007, underpins the 98.3% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. No official statements or credible supply-chain reports suggest deviation from this pattern, and the typical 12-month development cycle aligns with historical precedent. Traders assign near-certainty because major disruptions—such as severe semiconductor shortages, regulatory export bans, or unforeseen leadership changes—remain rare and have not materialized in recent quarters. While last-minute delays from component issues or certification hurdles are theoretically possible, they have not altered the release-year outcome in over a decade.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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