Apple’s established annual iPhone release cadence drives the 93.4% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new flagship model each September since 2007, with the iPhone 16 arriving in 2024 and the iPhone 17 expected in 2025, making the 2026 timeline the straightforward continuation. Supply-chain reports and component sourcing patterns align with this schedule, and no official statements suggest a delay or skipped generation. Traders see limited room for disruption from typical factors such as semiconductor shortages or regulatory reviews, though a major hardware redesign setback or global manufacturing interruption could still alter the outcome before the expected September announcement window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$99,180 Vol.
$99,180 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$99,180 Vol.
$99,180 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual iPhone release cadence drives the 93.4% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new flagship model each September since 2007, with the iPhone 16 arriving in 2024 and the iPhone 17 expected in 2025, making the 2026 timeline the straightforward continuation. Supply-chain reports and component sourcing patterns align with this schedule, and no official statements suggest a delay or skipped generation. Traders see limited room for disruption from typical factors such as semiconductor shortages or regulatory reviews, though a major hardware redesign setback or global manufacturing interruption could still alter the outcome before the expected September announcement window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$99,180End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual iPhone release cadence drives the 93.4% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new flagship model each September since 2007, with the iPhone 16 arriving in 2024 and the iPhone 17 expected in 2025, making the 2026 timeline the straightforward continuation. Supply-chain reports and component sourcing patterns align with this schedule, and no official statements suggest a delay or skipped generation. Traders see limited room for disruption from typical factors such as semiconductor shortages or regulatory reviews, though a major hardware redesign setback or global manufacturing interruption could still alter the outcome before the expected September announcement window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$99,180End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual iPhone release cadence drives the 93.4% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new flagship model each September since 2007, with the iPhone 16 arriving in 2024 and the iPhone 17 expected in 2025, making the 2026 timeline the straightforward continuation. Supply-chain reports and component sourcing patterns align with this schedule, and no official statements suggest a delay or skipped generation. Traders see limited room for disruption from typical factors such as semiconductor shortages or regulatory reviews, though a major hardware redesign setback or global manufacturing interruption could still alter the outcome before the expected September announcement window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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