Recent gasoline price surges, with the national average reaching $4.50 per gallon as of mid-May 2026, stem primarily from elevated crude oil benchmarks above $100 per barrel amid prior geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Supply-side pressures, including spring refinery maintenance and reduced capacity, have sustained elevated crack spreads, while resilient demand from seasonal driving has limited downside. EIA projections for 2026 retail gasoline averaging $3.70 per gallon reflect expectations of easing crude supplies later in the year, yet near-term trader sentiment remains anchored by the risk of renewed volatility if global inventories tighten further. With resolution approaching at month-end, market-implied odds closely track any shifts in Henry Hub natural gas futures or weekly inventory reports that could influence broader energy pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$140,205 Vol.
May 31, 2026
↑ $5.00
14%
↑ $4.70
52%
↑ $4.60
63%
↓ $4.25
14%
↓ $4.20
10%
↓ $4.10
9%
↓ $4.00
5%
↓ $3.75
3%
↓ $3.50
2%
$140,205 Vol.
↑ $5.00
$21,513 Vol.
14%
↑ $4.70
$11,417 Vol.
52%
↑ $4.60
$11,662 Vol.
63%
↓ $4.25
$2,557 Vol.
14%
↓ $4.20
$1,868 Vol.
10%
↓ $4.10
$796 Vol.
9%
↓ $4.00
$884 Vol.
5%
↓ $3.75
$1,486 Vol.
3%
↓ $3.50
$6,945 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Recent gasoline price surges, with the national average reaching $4.50 per gallon as of mid-May 2026, stem primarily from elevated crude oil benchmarks above $100 per barrel amid prior geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Supply-side pressures, including spring refinery maintenance and reduced capacity, have sustained elevated crack spreads, while resilient demand from seasonal driving has limited downside. EIA projections for 2026 retail gasoline averaging $3.70 per gallon reflect expectations of easing crude supplies later in the year, yet near-term trader sentiment remains anchored by the risk of renewed volatility if global inventories tighten further. With resolution approaching at month-end, market-implied odds closely track any shifts in Henry Hub natural gas futures or weekly inventory reports that could influence broader energy pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Volume
$140,205End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Recent gasoline price surges, with the national average reaching $4.50 per gallon as of mid-May 2026, stem primarily from elevated crude oil benchmarks above $100 per barrel amid prior geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Supply-side pressures, including spring refinery maintenance and reduced capacity, have sustained elevated crack spreads, while resilient demand from seasonal driving has limited downside. EIA projections for 2026 retail gasoline averaging $3.70 per gallon reflect expectations of easing crude supplies later in the year, yet near-term trader sentiment remains anchored by the risk of renewed volatility if global inventories tighten further. With resolution approaching at month-end, market-implied odds closely track any shifts in Henry Hub natural gas futures or weekly inventory reports that could influence broader energy pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$140,205End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent gasoline price surges, with the national average reaching $4.50 per gallon as of mid-May 2026, stem primarily from elevated crude oil benchmarks above $100 per barrel amid prior geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Supply-side pressures, including spring refinery maintenance and reduced capacity, have sustained elevated crack spreads, while resilient demand from seasonal driving has limited downside. EIA projections for 2026 retail gasoline averaging $3.70 per gallon reflect expectations of easing crude supplies later in the year, yet near-term trader sentiment remains anchored by the risk of renewed volatility if global inventories tighten further. With resolution approaching at month-end, market-implied odds closely track any shifts in Henry Hub natural gas futures or weekly inventory reports that could influence broader energy pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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