President Trump issued an executive order in March 2025 directing the dismantling of the Department of Education, and Secretary Linda McMahon has since reduced the agency's workforce by nearly half while transferring select programs to other departments through interagency agreements. Full elimination, however, requires congressional legislation to repeal the department's statutory basis, a step that lacks sufficient Republican support in the current Congress. Recent hearings have highlighted these procedural barriers, with lawmakers noting that core functions such as student aid administration and civil rights enforcement continue uninterrupted. Traders assign an 88 percent implied probability to the "No" outcome through 2026, reflecting the structural limits on unilateral executive action and the absence of legislative momentum for formal closure before the 2027 deadline.