**Trader consensus at 96.3% against revocation before 2027 stems primarily from the high legal threshold for denaturalization.** U.S. law permits stripping naturalized citizenship only through civil or criminal proceedings proving material fraud or willful misrepresentation during the 2018 application process, requiring clear and convincing evidence that would have altered the outcome. No such case has been filed against Mamdani, who was born in Uganda, moved to the U.S. as a child, and naturalized after lawful permanent residency. Republican calls for investigation, citing past statements or affiliations, have produced no DOJ action or evidence of concealment as of August 2026, despite broader administration priorities on fraud-related cases. Upcoming events like court filings or new disclosures could theoretically shift probabilities in the remaining months, though structural barriers and lack of substantiated claims sustain the current market pricing.