Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric energy in 2026, driving the market-implied odds to 98.3% against such an event. Decades of sky surveys, refined orbital models, and real-time fireball tracking confirm that megaton-scale impacts occur roughly once per several centuries on average, with none forecasted this year. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet entering the inner solar system or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers before year-end resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1 mégatonne de météorite en 2026 ?
1 mégatonne de météorite en 2026 ?
Oui
2% chance
$116,717 Vol.
$116,717 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
2% chance
$116,717 Vol.
$116,717 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric energy in 2026, driving the market-implied odds to 98.3% against such an event. Decades of sky surveys, refined orbital models, and real-time fireball tracking confirm that megaton-scale impacts occur roughly once per several centuries on average, with none forecasted this year. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet entering the inner solar system or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,717Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric energy in 2026, driving the market-implied odds to 98.3% against such an event. Decades of sky surveys, refined orbital models, and real-time fireball tracking confirm that megaton-scale impacts occur roughly once per several centuries on average, with none forecasted this year. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet entering the inner solar system or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,717Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric energy in 2026, driving the market-implied odds to 98.3% against such an event. Decades of sky surveys, refined orbital models, and real-time fireball tracking confirm that megaton-scale impacts occur roughly once per several centuries on average, with none forecasted this year. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet entering the inner solar system or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers before year-end resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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