Incumbent Mike Thompson faces a primary challenge in California's 4th Congressional District from Eric Jones, a Democratic businessman who has drawn endorsements and media attention while leading fundraising among challengers. Multiple Republican candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, are also on the June 2 top-two primary ballot, which is expected to split conservative votes in this heavily Democratic-leaning seat. Thompson's long tenure and moderate positioning within the Blue Dog Coalition provide structural advantages, while the recent candidate filing deadline and limited opposition resources among most contenders shape the field. The outcome will determine which candidates advance to the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$30,145 Vol.
Mike Thompson
97%
Eric Jones
90%
Heath Fulkerson
11%
John Wesley Tyler
8%
Trevor Merrell
8%
Laurie MacKenzie
4%
Sharon Brown
2%
Mandy Ghusar
1%
$30,145 Vol.
Mike Thompson
97%
Eric Jones
90%
Heath Fulkerson
11%
John Wesley Tyler
8%
Trevor Merrell
8%
Laurie MacKenzie
4%
Sharon Brown
2%
Mandy Ghusar
1%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Mike Thompson faces a primary challenge in California's 4th Congressional District from Eric Jones, a Democratic businessman who has drawn endorsements and media attention while leading fundraising among challengers. Multiple Republican candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, are also on the June 2 top-two primary ballot, which is expected to split conservative votes in this heavily Democratic-leaning seat. Thompson's long tenure and moderate positioning within the Blue Dog Coalition provide structural advantages, while the recent candidate filing deadline and limited opposition resources among most contenders shape the field. The outcome will determine which candidates advance to the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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