Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in California's 15th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, following his primary victory over limited opposition. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and Mullin's prior 73% general election margin, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5%. Recent primary results confirmed Mullin advancing against Republican Charles Hoelter in a low-contest race with no significant polling shifts or candidate withdrawals altering dynamics. Structural factors including district boundaries and historical turnout patterns limit Republican viability. Late developments such as scandals, health events, or major national political realignments could theoretically influence outcomes, though these remain low-probability factors given the district's established electoral patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-15
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-15
$121,677 Vol.
$121,677 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
2%
$121,677 Vol.
$121,677 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$93,610 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$28,067 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in California's 15th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, following his primary victory over limited opposition. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and Mullin's prior 73% general election margin, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5%. Recent primary results confirmed Mullin advancing against Republican Charles Hoelter in a low-contest race with no significant polling shifts or candidate withdrawals altering dynamics. Structural factors including district boundaries and historical turnout patterns limit Republican viability. Late developments such as scandals, health events, or major national political realignments could theoretically influence outcomes, though these remain low-probability factors given the district's established electoral patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$121,677Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in California's 15th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, following his primary victory over limited opposition. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and Mullin's prior 73% general election margin, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5%. Recent primary results confirmed Mullin advancing against Republican Charles Hoelter in a low-contest race with no significant polling shifts or candidate withdrawals altering dynamics. Structural factors including district boundaries and historical turnout patterns limit Republican viability. Late developments such as scandals, health events, or major national political realignments could theoretically influence outcomes, though these remain low-probability factors given the district's established electoral patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$121,677Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in California's 15th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, following his primary victory over limited opposition. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and Mullin's prior 73% general election margin, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5%. Recent primary results confirmed Mullin advancing against Republican Charles Hoelter in a low-contest race with no significant polling shifts or candidate withdrawals altering dynamics. Structural factors including district boundaries and historical turnout patterns limit Republican viability. Late developments such as scandals, health events, or major national political realignments could theoretically influence outcomes, though these remain low-probability factors given the district's established electoral patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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