The district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold. Incumbent Nanette Barragán advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside another Democrat after the lone Republican was eliminated, ensuring the general election on November 3 will feature two candidates from the same party. This structural outcome, combined with the seat’s history of double-digit Democratic victories and limited Republican infrastructure in the Los Angeles-area district, has produced the current pricing. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or court-ordered change to ballot access that somehow elevates the Republican option, none of which appear imminent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-44 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-44 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$46,509 Vol.
$46,509 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
98%
Parti républicain
2%
$46,509 Vol.
$46,509 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$21,619 Vol.
98%
Parti républicain
$24,890 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold. Incumbent Nanette Barragán advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside another Democrat after the lone Republican was eliminated, ensuring the general election on November 3 will feature two candidates from the same party. This structural outcome, combined with the seat’s history of double-digit Democratic victories and limited Republican infrastructure in the Los Angeles-area district, has produced the current pricing. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or court-ordered change to ballot access that somehow elevates the Republican option, none of which appear imminent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$46,509Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold. Incumbent Nanette Barragán advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside another Democrat after the lone Republican was eliminated, ensuring the general election on November 3 will feature two candidates from the same party. This structural outcome, combined with the seat’s history of double-digit Democratic victories and limited Republican infrastructure in the Los Angeles-area district, has produced the current pricing. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or court-ordered change to ballot access that somehow elevates the Republican option, none of which appear imminent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,509Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold. Incumbent Nanette Barragán advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside another Democrat after the lone Republican was eliminated, ensuring the general election on November 3 will feature two candidates from the same party. This structural outcome, combined with the seat’s history of double-digit Democratic victories and limited Republican infrastructure in the Los Angeles-area district, has produced the current pricing. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or court-ordered change to ballot access that somehow elevates the Republican option, none of which appear imminent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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